Just like last season, every week during the 2024 season, I'll be sharing my favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) and my betting card for every Sunday slate. For reference, here are my season-long records in this file.
- 2023: 37-17 (68.5%)
- 2024: 3-3 (50.0%)
- Overall: 40-20 (66.7%)
For my NFL Week 3 predictions, I'm targeting a bet in each time slot on Sunday. If you're curious, other sides that missed the cut were the Panthers, Broncos, Ravens and Colts.
Here are my expert NFL picks for Sunday, as well as the latest NFL Week 3 odds.
Stuckey's NFL Picks Week 3
- Titans ML (-125) at DraftKings
- Dolphins +4.5 (-110) at bet365
- Falcons +3.5 (-115) at Caesars
Packers vs. Titans: Bet Tennessee Regardless of Love's Status
I'd be having a very good NFL season if I simply hadn't already bet the Panthers and Titans. While the Panthers losses were easy to swallow since I simply whiffed, going 0-2 on the Titans still stings. In 20-plus years of betting the NFL, I don't think I've ever lost two bets on the same team in a similar price range in such a similar fashion.
Not only did Tennessee blow back-to-back leads, but it melted down in each as a result of a blocked punt (what is this, high school football?) and absolutely inexplicable turnovers by Will Levis, who quite literally threw away a pair of potential victories. And somehow both contests ended with the same exact final score!
I learned a long time ago, though, that you have to have a short memory in this gig, so I don't fear going back to the well with a team that burned me the previous two weeks. Bottom line, the Titans could (arguably should) be 2-0 on the season. However, due to the aforementioned flukiness, at 0-2, they are still flying a bit under the radar in the market.
It all starts with the defense, which I believe is one of the most improved units in the NFL under new coordinator Dennard Wilson. Tennessee now boasts one of the better cornerback trios in the NFL with L'Jarius Sneed, Chidobie Awuzie and Roger McCreary. I also loved the rookie defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat to pair with Jeffrey Simmons. Adding linebacker Ernest Jones via trade at a position of need late in the summer also really helped raise the floor of this unit.
I backed the Packers last week with Malik Willis under center, but I don't believe they'll be able to employ the same game plan from last week against a very beat-up and basic Colts defense. Green Bay essentially turned into a service academy with 53 rush attempts for 261 yards, while not asking Willis to do much in the passing game.
I'm still not sure why it took until halftime for Indianapolis defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to adjust by utilizing an extra defensive lineman. In the first half, Green Bay ran for a whopping 237 yards — the third-most of any team since 2000. However, over the final 30 minutes, after averaging just under seven yards per carry in the first half, the Packers only amassed 24 yards on the ground on 19 carries (1.2 yards per rush).
The Titans not only have a much healthier and more talented defense up front, but they also benefited from seeing what the Packers want to do with Willis, who they also have plenty of familiarity with after cutting him prior to the season. They know all of his strengths and weaknesses.
Now, I should note there is a chance that Jordan Love does play after practicing on Wednesday, but I placed this wager with the assumption that he won't. After already stealing a win with Willis, I'd imagine Green Bay, which has erred on the side of caution when it comes to injuries in recent seasons, would not rush their young, star quarterback back after paying him a boatload of money, especially with a very important divisional game on deck against the Vikings.
Now, I could be wrong and Love plays in which I would be sitting with a bad number, but I still wouldn't hate the play considering Love likely wouldn't be at 100%.
In regards to the Titans offense, it's not great by any means and Levis has killed them with elementary school mistakes over the first two games, but I do think the offensive line will continue to improve under one of the best offensive line coaches in the NFL.
Calvin Ridley has looked good in this scheme so far and DeAndre Hopkins continues to inch back to a full workload, increasing his snap count from 17 in Week 1 to 29 last Sunday. Tennessee can also lean on its ground game in this particular matchup, taking some of the pressure off of Levis.
I don't expect the Tennessee offense to light the world on fire by any stretch, but it should be able to do enough to pull this out at home in a desperation spot.
If you're into trends, there are plenty that back up the Titans in this spot:
- 0-2 straight-up (SU) teams against non-winless teams over past 10 years: 42-23-1 (64.6%) ATS
- Winless favorites against teams with at least 1 win: 17-9-2 (65.4%) ATS
- Winless home favorites against teams with at least 1 win: 15-6-2 (71.4%) ATS
Let's just hope the Titans don't get a punt blocked this week!
Trending: Since 2003, teams that are 0-2 ATS and SU against non-winless teams have gone 54-35-1 ATS (60.7%).
Dolphins vs. Seahawks: No Tua, No Problem
Just like last week with the Packers and Malik Willis, the first game with the backup quarterback effect is in play here. Over the past three seasons, backups making their first start of the season have gone 39-30 ATS (56.5%). I hypothesize that the market generally overestimates the downgrade between the starter and backup. Everyone else on the team knows they need to step up, as well, which isn't really sustainable over the long term but can serve as a partial one-game bump. We also see this in basketball in the first game without a star player.
This is also a pretty good situational spot for the Dolphins, who are coming off a disappointing loss against division rival Buffalo. I'd expect a much better game plan from Mike McDaniel, who I thought had one of his worst as a coach in that loss. Plus, it doesn't hurt to have extended prep and rest before this game, especially with a new signal caller under center. And Skylar Thompson — now in his third year in this offense — does at least have previous starting experience and plenty of talented weapons to lean on.
Meanwhile, Seattle will come back across the country after an overtime win in Foxborough. Historically, teams have not fared well ATS (~44%) in this spot. That was a super physical game, which led to a number of injury concerns for Seattle across the board headed into Week 3. Conversely, outside of Tagovailoa, Miami looks to be in much better shape in terms of the injury report.
The Seattle offensive line still has issues and I don't expect Kenneth Walker to play, which really limits the Seattle rushing attack. While Geno Smith has played very well so far under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, I do fancy the Miami secondary better than its front.
Also, while off to a 2-0 start, keep in mind Seattle has benefited from beating two of the worst teams in the league (by a combined nine points) in Denver (in Bo Nix's first career start on the road) and New England (in overtime).
I think this is a good spot to back Dolphins, even with Skylar Thompson getting the QB1 duties.
Trending: Geno Smith is 10-16-2 ATS (38.5%) as a favorite in his career, including 2-8 against the number when laying more than four points.
Falcons vs. Chiefs: Bet the 'Dog on Sunday Night
When in doubt, fade the Chiefs as a favorite of more than a field goal. Kansas City just hasn't fared well in this spot in the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes era. They tend to play with their food against inferior opponents and are also masters of running the clock out late when necessary.
This isn't the greatest situational spot in the world for the Falcons, who come off an emotional last-minute win in Philadelphia on Monday night. However, I do show a tad bit of value in the number and like the matchup against a Chiefs team that could easily be 0-2 on the season.
Kansas City still has some issues on offense at the tackle position, wide receiver (outside of Rashee Rice) with Hollywood Brown out, and now running back with Isaiah Pacheco hitting the IR. The explosiveness just isn't there at the moment. The Falcons defense can employ a similar game plan to what we saw last week against Philadelphia with only one real threat at wide receiver.
With the summer additions of Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon, this defense now has the chops to at least hang here, especially since I trust head coach Raheem Morris to come up with a pretty good opponent-adjusted game plan each week.
The Chiefs defense played at an insane level all last season, which essentially got them to the Super Bowl. However, I do expect them to take a slight step back this season, even if the floor is still really high under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The secondary isn't as talented without Sneed, and the run defense is still a major area of weakness.
Through two games, the Kansas City defense ranks 30th in Rush EPA and dead last in Rush Success Rate at 58% — joining the Cowboys (51%) and Rams (55%) as the only other teams allowing a Success Rate north of 50% in 2024. That could spell trouble against a potent Atlanta rushing attack, led by an outstanding offensive line and the running back duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
In Week 1, the Falcons offense looked rough. Kirk Cousins was rusty as you'd expect in his first live action in quite some time after returning from an injury, but the play-calling and formations were extremely predictable. Well, that all changed last week. Not only did Cousins look more comfortable in the pocket, especially as the game progressed, but the formations and play-calling were much more varied. That led to a top-5 success rate among all NFL offenses in Week 2.
The run game should set up the play-action where the Chiefs defense can be exploited. While Spags will certainly test Cousins more than Vic Fangio did last week, Atlanta should be in third-and-manageable situations more often than not.
If I had to guess how this game plays out, the Falcons have plenty of success on the ground and jump out to an early lead, and then the Chiefs come back and win by a field goal. A story as old as time.
Trending:Mahomes is just 38-43-2 ATS (46.9%) as a favorite of more than a FG compared to a sparkling 24-8-1 ATS (75%) as an underdog or favorite of 3 or less.
