As I make my NFL Week 7 picks, it's worth noting that the current quality of offense and red-zone efficiency is way down around the NFL. It’s made the product increasingly painful to watch at times, especially a week after unders finished 12-2-1 against the closing number.
But let’s be honest: we’re all going to watch and bet on the NFL games once again this Sunday. We haven’t had a high-quality island game in weeks, so maybe the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles can provide some fireworks as the Kelly Green jerseys make their return in South Philly.
A season-high six teams — the Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans — have their byes in Week 7. That leaves just 13 games in the upcoming week, the shortest NFL slate of the season.
Here are my thoughts on all 13 games, including four bets I’ve made already, starting with Thursday night football between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints.
My picks are 18-10-1 (63.4%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
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| Passes |
| Leans |
| Week 6 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Jaguars vs. Saints
Trevor Lawrence practiced in a limited capacity on Tuesday, which would suggest that he’s trending toward playing on Thursday night. The market reacted to his appearance on the practice field, moving from Jacksonville +3 to +1.5 on Tuesday afternoon. The total opened as high as 42.5 and has cratered down to 39.
If Lawrence is announced as playing and the total shoots up to 41, I’d bet the under. Otherwise, I’ll be passing on this matchup. The Jaguars offense ended up with 37 points on Sunday at home against Indianapolis, but it was an extremely misleading final score. They had just 3.8 yards per play, fewer first downs and 233 total yards.
Now on the road with a short week against a much tougher defense with a potentially injured Lawrence, it’s hard to see the offense thriving here. Lawrence finished the game with a 0 EPA per play rating and the early down rushing success rate was just 37%.
The Jaguars defense had a unique approach to play base defense almost exclusively against Gardner Minshew. They refused to let the Colts run the ball at all and dared a limited quarterback with average weapons to beat their corners man to man.
Given the Saints' offensive limitations and Derek Carr’s continued mediocre play, this is a solid spot to buy Jacksonville’s defensive improvements. They’ve now played well in four of five weeks, including games against Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Verdict: Under 41 or Better | Pass at Current Number
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The Passes
Browns vs. Colts
The Browns are sure to bring a ton of pressure against Gardner Minshew and dare the Colts wide receivers to win man-to-man matchups and force Minshew to beat them downfield. That feels like a recipe for disaster for the Colts offense given their skill position limitations. Minshew has performed well from clean pockets this year when not under duress, but the Colts line should struggle to hold up against the Browns' fierce pass rush that is an elite unit by all metrics.
Cleveland has allowed 1,002 yards through five games, which is the fewest since the 1971 Ravens. That’s historically good defense and even if you acknowledge that it’s likely a bit inflated because of opponents, they just held a dominant San Francisco offense to 15 first downs and 3.9 yards per play.
The Colts will be without top run-stopper Grover Stewart due to a PED suspension and despite the Browns' advantages in terms of a matchup, I can’t get there with PJ Walker as a road favorite against a mediocre NFL team. This is a pass and Indianapolis is a good teaser option as a +2.5 home dog with a low total.
Verdict: Pass
Raiders vs. Bears
Justin Fields and Jimmy Garappolo are both unlikely to play in this game. That leaves Aidan O’Connell and Tyson Bagent as the probable starters. It’s only Week 7. I’m willing to bet more than half of the people reading this had never heard of either prior to this NFL season.
O’Connell showed some real flashes when he had time to throw in his lone outing against the Chargers. As soon as anyone got near him, there was immediate fumble and sack risk. The Bears defense is a very friendly matchup for the young quarterback. This game comes down to who can better run the ball. Neither have been able to all season.
Easiest pass on the board.
Verdict: Pass
Commanders vs. Giants
The primary hole in the Commanders defense is the secondary and attacking vertically down the field. I’m not sure the Giants are a team that can exploit this at all because of their blocking issues and lack of vertical threats overall. The reports are that Daniel Jones is probably going to miss another week, and the offense really will lack explosiveness with Tyrod Taylor in there again.
If you look at the net yards per drive stats, the Giants are dead last in the entire NFL even after a solid all-around performance against the Bills. The Commanders aren’t much better at 30th in net.
The Commanders defense has largely underperformed expectations along the defensive line — they rank 25th in pass rush win rate and 16th in pass rush per PFF.
Washington’s win against Atlanta was quite misleading if you look at the box score and while I’d lean to them, but unless this flips to NYG -1, there’s no value in the number for me.
Verdict: Pass
49ers vs. Vikings
All three injuries for San Francisco don’t appear to be serious. The 49ers don’t yet know the status of Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams or Christian McCaffrey for Week 7, but none have been ruled out. The Vikings offense sans Justin Jefferson posted some alarmingly poor numbers offensively on Sunday at Chicago.
The Vikings had a 54.5% series success rate offensively and couldn’t run the ball at all on the Bears front. If you can’t run on early downs against this Niners front, good luck consistently moving the ball. Dropping Kirk Cousins back 40+ times from behind with his top weapon feels like a recipe for turnovers.
I’ll wait for more injury news on the 49ers offense before betting this matchup.
Verdict: Pass
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The Leans
Lions vs. Ravens
We’ve reached mid-October in the northeast, which is when the weather starts to turn. There’s no precipitation in the forecast for Sunday’s best afternoon game between the Lions and Ravens, but the forecasted 15 mph winds have driven the total down a couple of points. The Lions defense is probably the most upgraded unit year over year in the entire NFL.
Through six weeks, Detroit is seventh in defensive EPA per play, fifth in rushing success rate allowed and 12th in passing success rate allowed. They’ve beaten up the middle class of the NFC — Green Bay, Atlanta and Tampa Bay — comfortably in three of the last four weeks and also handled the inferior Panthers despite a lot of injuries.
The Ravens defense has even better metrics overall, but you have to consider their schedule of opponents before giving Mike MacDonald too much credit as defensive coordinator. Here’s the list of quarterbacks the Ravens have faced: Kenny Pickett, Joe Burrow (injured), Gardner Minshew, CJ Stroud (first game), Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis.
Baltimore may have the second-best EPA numbers and second-best pass defense numbers in the league, but there are more questions when you consider the opponents. They’ve faced the 30th-best defense per DVOA strength of schedule metrics.
I’m always weary to back Jared Goff outdoors, especially in bad weather, but he’s by far the biggest challenge the Ravens secondary has faced. With the total dropping and the line hovering around three, this is an excellent teaser option.
It’s just a lean for me on Detroit at +3, but would bet them at +4 for sure. I’ve teased Detroit up with Atlanta to get both over the seven points.
Verdict: Lean Detroit +3 | Monitor Weather and Number
Bills vs. Patriots
Another week, another non-cover for Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Last week was extra painful for the Patriots after they were +3 and would have covered (and maybe won outright) if not for a Davante Parker drop and a Mac Jones safety in the final two minutes of the game.
If you’ve been trying to catch the falling knife by betting the Patriots at their floor for weeks and kept losing, I totally understand if you’ve decided you’re done with the Patriots for now. But there’s value in the number for me if New England is more than +8. The Bills defense has lost multiple key pieces, one at each level from Matt Milano to Tre’Davious White to DaQuan Jones.
The Giants had 10 drives on Sunday night at Buffalo with a completely makeshift offensive line and a second-string quarterback. They gained at least 30 yards on six of those 10 drives. The Giants made some poor red-zone decisions but easily could have scored 20 points on the Bills defense.
There are major holes in this Bills defensive coverage unit now and while the Patriots may not be the team to exploit that, it certainly makes Buffalo overvalued. Expecting the Patriots injured defense to slow down Josh Allen could be a challenge, but the Patriots do rank No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed against the opponent’s top WR. That could be a key to slowing down a Stefon Diggs-reliant offensive approach.
There will be opportunities for New England to ball control here.
Verdict: Lean Patriots +8 or Better
Packers vs. Broncos
Both of these teams are playing on extended rest as Denver played a Thursday night game and Green Bay had a bye. At first glance, this total might seem low at 45 given just how bad these defenses are. But the pace is going to be really slow if the game remains competitive. The Broncos rank 32nd in situation-neutral pace and Green Bay is 26th in the same metric.
Because both teams have played from behind so much, their overall pace numbers are considerably faster. The Broncos move up to 24th and Packers up to 17th if you count all plays. Given the spread is a coin flip, it’s a good bet that this game will play extremely slowly.
Only San Francisco plays slower in the first half than these two offenses, which both have major red-zone issues too — like the whole league. I’d bet the first half under or nothing here.
Verdict: Lean 1H Under 22.5
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Seattle had four drives inside the Cincinnati 10 on Sunday that resulted in just three total points. I bet the over in that game and expected some positive regression for the Seahawks offensively. I still expect that going forward. The offense has really struggled to convert early down success into points and has been inconsistent on third downs and points.
The Bengals were able to successfully generate well-timed pressures of Geno Smith and rattle him into bad decisions. The Cardinals are a considerably worse defense from a talent perspective.
The Seahawks are the league’s second-best run offense through six weeks and now face the run defense that is 31st in success rate against both the run and pass. Seattle should be able to move the ball comfortably in this game, the question is whether or not Joshua Dobbs can have success against the Seattle defense.
The Seahawks seem to have found a pass rush — they rank fourth in pass rush win rate — but there are still holes in that secondary with the injury situation.
If you can stomach an over in the 2023 NFL, I think 44.5 is a bit low. Wouldn’t play north of the key number of 45 though.
Verdict: Lean Over 44.5
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The Picks
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Atlanta didn’t win against the Commanders on Sunday, but the box score would suggest they absolutely should have. Atlanta had 402 total yards to 193 for Washington. The Falcons had nearly double the number of first downs and only Desmond Ridder turnovers and poor red-zone execution cost them the game.
The Commanders scored two of their three touchdowns on drives of less than 30 yards in that win. I wrote last week why I still wasn’t buying the Buccaneers despite being in a dream home spot off the bye against the Lions. The offense showed why they’re really flawed in the loss.
Tampa Bay still has more third-down regression coming, and the Bucs looked more like the unit that ranks 31st in early down success rate last week. Tampa Bay had 4.6 yards per play and 251 total yards despite playing from behind nearly the entire game. The market is still too high on the Buccaneers offense off a few unsustainably hot third-down games against middling defenses (Chicago and Minnesota).
The Falcons' pass rush win rate and pass rush grades from PFF keep trending up from the near basement early in the season to close to the league average the last few weeks. The Falcons defense and pass rush are both showing real signs of improvement week to week. Tampa Bay’s complete inability to run the ball — 30th in success rate and 31st in EPA per play — will put continued pressure on Baker Mayfield to produce under pressure.
I’ve been lower on Atlanta than most this year and even still can’t get to them being almost a three-point road dog here. I’m fine betting Atlanta +2.5, but will wait around and see if we can get a three because of the asymmetric risk. Atlanta is also an excellent teaser option.
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Rams vs. Steelers
The Bucs have the second-worst success rate on early downs in the NFL at 37%. Pittsburgh is a full 3.2% worse than that, which is the same gap between 31 and 26. That’s how bad the Pittsburgh offense is through five games. They’ve played mostly above-average defenses to this point — Cleveland, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Las Vegas — but the offense’s inability to run the ball has persisted for more than a full season now.
The Steelers enter our Action Network luck rankings as by far the luckiest team in the NFL. Two defensive touchdowns to beat Cleveland at home despite running zero red-zone snaps. A stolen victory against Baltimore after the Ravens dropped seven passes and had high-leverage turnovers.
When you talk to the average person about the Steelers, you’d probably hear that the defense is elite and dominant to make up for the anemic offense. I’d push back against that and say that on a play-to-play basis, the Steelers defense isn’t as good as the market suggests.
Pittsburgh’s defense is much closer to the league average thus far in 2023. 16th in success rate, 10th in EPA per play because of turnovers and 21st in rushing EPA per play allowed. The Rams actually have a better defensive success rate than the Steelers overall. The Rams offense has a healthy Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp now and ranks sixth in yards per drive this season.
The market for this game opened Rams -3, moved to -3.5 and then came immediately back to -3 again. As long as it’s -3, I'm on it.
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Justin Herbert had one of the worst games of his professional career on Monday night against Dallas, but the Chargers made defensive improvements against Dallas that could be more important to their long-term success this season. Herbert’s offense is still top 10 in dropback success rate and top 10 in dropback EPA. I’m not concerned about Herbert just because he missed a bunch of throws he normally makes.
The run game has taken solid steps forward with increased volume and the red-zone offense has improved this season under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The results haven’t been great because the Chargers have lost three coin-flip games to the Dolphins, Titans and Cowboys, but they haven’t lost a game by more than five yet.
Even dating back to last year, the Chargers only lost two games with a healthy Justin Herbert by six or more points.
These two teams have played four times since Brandon Staley took over as Chargers head coach. They only have one win head-to-head, but the Chargers were either leading or tied in the fourth quarter of all four meetings. None of the games were decided by more than one score.
In a league where all of the top teams keep stumbling against inferior competition — the Eagles, Bills, Cowboys and 49ers all have lost as 5+ point favorites — the Chiefs deserve credit for keeping focus and handling these inferior teams.
The Chiefs offense ranks fifth in yards per drive and sixth in points per drive. It’s not quite peak Chiefs offense yet, but the defense has shown legitimate improvement in 2023. That’s a reason they’ve covered games as favorites more — Kansas City’s defense is top 10 in yards and points per drive allowed. Even despite this improved defense, I’m backing the Chargers to keep this competitive on Sunday.
Dolphins vs. Eagles
In the 2023 NFL where almost no offenses have been successful in the red zone, Miami has been the exception. The league average red-zone touchdown rate is 55% and the Dolphins have scored touchdowns on 80.8% of their red-zone trips this season. One of the primary reasons has been the Dolphins rushing success in the red area. The Dolphins are number one in both rushing success rate and EPA.
Even despite the efficiency being elite, it’s simply not sustainable to score that many touchdowns and inflates the market perception of this offense. No team finished north of 71% for the entire 2023 season. It’s going to be much tougher to run on this Eagles defensive front than it was the Broncos, Chargers, Panthers and Giants, who all have terrible run defenses. The loss of the injured De’Von Achane should limit the explosiveness of this offense in the running game, even if Raheem Mostert is having a career season.
Miami’s offense has been dominant in good conditions and against bad defenses, but a primetime road game in Philadelphia with 15 mph forecasted winds will have a real impact on the Dolphins' precision-passing offense and ability to execute.
There are some real concerns about the Eagles secondary due to the injury situation back there that need to be monitored and make this bet feel a bit uneasy. Any Dolphin under is a bit uneasy given how inconsistent their defense is too.
The Dolphins have allowed the third most red-zone trips but don’t give up a ton of explosive plays, which will force the Eagles to be methodical. The story all week in Eagles media was that they didn’t run the ball enough in the loss to the Jets, and I expect Philadelphia to try to dominate time of possession by running the ball effectively and protecting its defense that will be shorthanded in the secondary.
Few teams can strangle possession and clock like this Eagles offense. I do expect Lane Johnson to play on Sunday despite his ankle issue, but his absence would also hurt the Eagles ability to protect Jalen Hurts.
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