Week 9 might have the most optimal Sunday NFL schedule you’ll see all season, especially for East Coast viewers.
There are four marquee matchups, starting at 9:30 a.m. ET in Germany, where the Dolphins and Chiefs face off. The Ravens host the Seahawks at 1 p.m. before the Cowboys and Eagles renew their NFC East rivalry. Two of the AFC's preseason favorites play an enticing primetime matchup on Sunday Night Football as the Bills visit the Bengals to cap off one of the most interesting Sunday slates of the season.
There are only 14 games in NFL Week 9 as the 49ers, Lions, Jaguars and Broncos enjoy byes. Here are my thoughts on all 14 games, starting with Thursday Night Football between the Titans and Steelers.
My picks are 24-16-2 (60%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| Week 8 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Titans vs. Steelers
What you think of this game and this line is entirely dependent on your reaction to Will Levis’ NFL debut on Sunday against Atlanta. There’s a big difference between shocking a defense at home in your debut for a few big plays and then repeating that performance on the road four days later.
Levis certainly made the Titans offense more explosive. The counting stats looked great at a glance, but the overall efficiency left a lot more to be desired. There are 44 quarterbacks with at least 20 plays this season and Levis ranks 44th in success rate, better known as dead last. All of the EPA and production came on a handful of deep balls.
A quick glance at his pass chart offers some reason to be skeptical of Levis. He hit two huge deep balls, but he’s not going to have that kind of time against the Pittsburgh defensive front.
The Steelers defense remains a league-average unit overall. The offense is still a bottom-three unit with no real signs of improvement coming, and I’m definitely not laying points in this spot either.
Tennessee is a solid tease option with such a low total, but I expect a real crash down to earth for Levis in this short week.
Verdict: Pass
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The Passes
Vikings vs. Falcons
This is a good potential game to bet live. Kevin O’Connell might be able to script up something decent for BYU product Jaren Hall in his first NFL start. He also could be so bad that the Vikings have to go to Joshua Dobbs just five days after acquiring him. Whether Dobbs will even know enough of the playbook to make it work is unknown.
Arthur Smith announced that Desmond Ridder has now been benched as the Falcons' starting QB, and Taylor Heinecke will now face Brian Flores' aggressive defense. Heinecke is a high variance quarterback, but he actually propelled this offense to life on Sunday with impressive efficiency and downfield passing.
So much QB uncertainty makes this a really interesting watch but a difficult one to bet.
Verdict: Pass
Commanders vs. Patriots
When you have a glaring deficiency offensively, Bill Belichick is the last person I’d want to face. For Sam Howell, his sack problem is sure to be exploited in this matchup. Howell has diced up the Eagles twice, which is worth something, but his other performances have been much more uneven.
The Commanders traded their entire pass rush this week in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. If the bad secondary wasn’t exposed already, it sure will be now. The question is whether this hapless New England offense with no real weapons is the one to exploit that.
I maintain that Patriots totals are too high because extreme game states (due to turnover variance and defensive touchdowns) have forced them to play more aggressively and quickly than they normally would. In games with low spreads, look to play New England unders generally. The New England defensive metrics remain above average league-wide.
Verdict: Pass
Bears vs. Saints
If you want to bet the Saints, I think the much better way to play them is the division than this Sunday against Tyson Bagent and the Bears.
Bagent had his moment in the sun against the hapless Raiders — who had quit on Josh McDaniels — and then predictably showed his true colors against the Chargers, whose defense pales in comparison to the quality of this Saints defense. Even I think the defense remains overrated because of the schedule, but the Saints never actually play anyone to take advantage of that.
New Orleans is the best team in a really bad division and +150 to win the NFC South is your best bet for attacking this Sunday. Atlanta's faith in Ridder could cost it.
Verdict: Pass
Buccaneers vs. Texans
This game is so close to a bet for me on both the side and total, but it's a pass at the current 2.5 and 40.
We shouldn’t forget our preseason priors on a team, even halfway through the season. In the case of the Texans, we liked the defensive upgrades and coaching staff but were much more skeptical of the offensive success. The Texans run game is quite mediocre, and the Buccaneers have a solid enough pass rush to bother C.J. Stroud.
I’ve written this a few times, but Tampa Bay’s offense remains one of the more overrated units in the whole league. In the last three weeks, the Buccaneers have scored 13, six and 18 points (eight against a prevent defense). They haven’t improved at all in early down success rate and remain a Baker Mayfield scramble drill offense.
At 41, I’d bet the under. At 40, I’ll pass.
Verdict: Pass
Colts vs. Panthers
Welcome to the Frank Reich Bowl.
The Colts kept their streak alive of being the only NFL team to score at least 20 points in every game in their loss to the Saints at home on Sunday.
The bigger problem for the Colts isn’t the offense with Gardner Minshew, but the fact the defense is down to a skeleton crew in the defensive secondary. The injuries and suspensions have really taken their toll and when you combine that with Grover Stewart’s suspension at nose tackle and Shaquille Leonard’s decline in playmaking, you’re left with a bottom-five defense that keeps flying over the projected totals.
Now, the Colts get a matchup with the Panthers just one week after their first win of the season. Carolina was out-gained and lost the yards per play battle to Houston despite the absolute home run spot. I’m not betting Carolina again, but would target an under if it hits 45.
Our Action Network luck metrics have this game chosen as an under based on all of the excess scoring in Colts games of late. At the current number, though, the market is correct, for me, and I’m passing.
Verdict: Pass
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The Leans
Rams vs. Packers
The weather conditions in the 30s with potential rain and snow showers don’t give much optimism for Matthew Stafford’s chances of playing on Sunday. As tough as Stafford is, the UCL injury in his thumb will affect his grip on the football.
Stafford is keeping this offense afloat on his own because the Rams cannot run the ball at all. Los Angeles ranks 29th in rushing success rate and probably won’t be able to exploit the Packers' weak run defense to keep Brett Rypien ahead of the chains.
The market is painted on three right now, but I’d lay 2.5 on Green Bay. The Packers are bottom three in our Action Network luck rankings following some long drives last week that resulted in no points after poor results on high-leverage downs. I tried to buy the floor on Green Bay last week and lost, but I'm tempted to go back to the well.
Verdict: Lean Green Bay -3 (Bet -2.5)
Seahawks vs. Ravens
The weather in Baltimore looks unseasonably warm and good for offenses for a Sunday in November.
The NFL average for a series conversion rate — how often a first-and-10 becomes another first-and-10 — is 70%. Both of these offenses are above average at converting first downs and keeping the chains moving. Both offenses have had issues with poor red-zone execution.
It’s been proven that the red zone is noisier and that drive-to-drive success is more predictive. The Ravens defense is third in the NFL in yards allowed per drive and first in points per drive, but let’s consider who they’ve played as a schedule of opposing quarterbacks: Gardner Minshew, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Josh Dobbs, injured Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett and Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis. The opposing quarterback play has been brutal, excluding Jared Goff.
Geno Smith has made a lot more mistakes of late, but this offense is still really moving the ball. Two above-average offenses, a solid pace and one overrated Baltimore defense. A solid lean to the over for me at 43, if you can sweat out the red zones again.
Verdict: Lean Over 43
Chargers vs. Jets
The Jets defense has had a ton of success dragging some elite quarterbacks into the mud this year. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts all had one of their two worst games of the year against the Jets. Overall, the New York defense ranks sixth in rushing success rate allowed and seventh in dropback success rate allowed despite playing one of the toughest schedules of opposing QBs in the NFL.
Where does the Chargers offense fit in all of this? The most concerning trend line throughout the season has been the disappearance of the run game. We all gushed over the Chargers' ability to run the ball the first few weeks of the season under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, but the run game has dropped to the bottom six in success rate and in EPA per rush.
The burden of this offense is squarely back on the shoulders of Justin Herbert. He’s another week removed from the finger injury on his non-throwing hand and one thing is for certain: he’s pushing the ball down the field more in 2023.
Herbert's average depth of target jumped from 6.2 to 8.2 this year and his per-play efficiency has jumped from around league average starter last year into the top 10 this season. He’s had a couple high-profile bad games against the Cowboys and Chiefs defenses, though, which does leave some concern for the Chargers to try to get a big enough margin on the road here.
It’s just a lean for me at 3, but if this line comes back to 2.5, I’ll be laying it with the Chargers.
Verdict: Lean Chargers -3 (Bet Chargers -2.5)
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The Plays
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes had the worst game of his professional career on Sunday in Denver. It was a total offensive failure, the likes of which we’ve never seen from Mahomes.
Please, please don’t let that game cloud your judgment of this team as Kansas City travels to Germany. If anything, the Chiefs defense is the best Mahomes has ever had, and that gives the quarterback a bit more margin for error this season. It’s true that Mahomes has been nowhere near his best, but overreacting to some small sample struggles is a major mistake.
The Chiefs rank inside the top five in the NFL in success rate, EPA, pass success rate and pass EPA allowed. Ultimately, it’s a solid bet that the Chiefs will fall out of the top five defensively going forward. Miami can move the ball on anyone, but it’s Tua Tagovailoa’s unit that will encounter a lot more resistance this weekend.
Miami’s defense ranks 27th in the league by success rate allowed. The Chiefs also have a solid special teams advantage, they have a solid defensive advantage and they have the best QB in the NFL.
Maybe Miami’s offense is operating at a higher level through the first eight games of 2023, but who would you bet on to be better the rest of the season? I’ll take Mahomes.
I think we’ll look back and all thank the Chiefs for playing so badly in the game in Denver that we were able to bet them the ensuing week laying less than a field goal to a clearly worse Miami team across the board.
Verdict: Bet Kansas City -1.5
Cardinals vs. Browns
Nothing shows the bad quarterback play in the NFL like Clayton Tune starting on Sunday for the Cardinals. They traded Joshua Dobbs to Minnesota on Tuesday, and I’d be shocked if Kyler Murray came back against this defense on Sunday.
Tune had a solid college career at Houston, but he’s nowhere close to good enough to start an NFL game. It won’t be Tommy DeVito-level bad, but the Cardinals' talent deficiencies across the roster will get exposed badly by Cleveland’s physicality. The sheen has come off the Browns defense in the last few weeks after a historic start, but Jim Schwartz will be blitzing and scaring Tune into mistakes all afternoon.
Cleveland is a great teaser piece and I’d lay up to eight with them.
Verdict: Bet Cleveland -7.5 (-115)
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Giants vs. Raiders
I’m inherently skeptical of anyone who tries to convince you that a team has quit in the NFL. But the Raiders' embarrassing effort against Tyson Bagent and the Bears in Week 7 — a Chicago player commented they seemed jetlagged — should have produced some type of response on Monday Night Football in Week 8. The loss to the Lions was the exact opposite of a response.
The Raiders might be playing Jimmy Garappolo, but he’s not close to right. He leads the league in interceptions and he finished the loss in Detroit 10-for-21 for 126 yards in Detroit. A week after Lamar Jackson completely torched the Lions secondary, that same secondary had Garoppolo under 100 yards passing as the game was deep in the fourth quarter. Davante Adams was sounding the body language police alarms on the sidelines.
That was one of the lopsided games of the entire season despite just a 12-point delta between the two teams.
The Giants will get Daniel Jones back in the lineup and Wink Martindale is sure to bring a lot of pressure and sack and pressure new starter Aidan O'Connell early and often on Sunday. O'Connell had major problems against the Chargers avoiding sacks and fumbles. I don’t know how you can make the Raiders a better team on a neutral than the Giants right now given the Raiders' recent performances. They fired coach and offensive coordinator too, which means a new play caller for Las Vegas.
Will firing Josh McDaniels on Tuesday help the Raiders change course? It can’t hurt, but the defense spent 40 minutes on the field Monday and it’s still a short turnaround.
Verdict: Bet Giants +1.5
Cowboys vs. Eagles
FOX
First place in the NFC East is essentially on the line (in the loss column) this Sunday. The Eagles defense has been a difficult unit to predict on a week-to-week basis. Philadelphia has now been carved open by Sam Howell on two separate occasions, but it also held Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to just 10 offensive points two weeks ago.
Given the state of the secondary, I still have major questions about the group as a whole. Cornerback James Bradberry has looked a step slower in coverage this year. Darius Slay’s coverage numbers have taken a real step back this year too.
The secondary has dealt with a handful of injuries, but unless the defensive line can rattle the opposing quarterback, they’re going to get picked apart by most quality quarterbacks. Pro Football Focus grades the Eagles coverage unit as 23rd in the league and there are real holes over the middle. The Commanders had a clear plan to go after Nakobe Dean in coverage over the middle last week.
Prescott has traditionally matched up well with the Eagles secondary in the last few seasons, and that’s an important key to watch for the next matchup in December and a potential playoff rematch this January. There’s not a ton to separate these two teams overall, which makes the Jalen Hurts’ left leg injury something to monitor.
Hurts had one of his best games as a passer in the win against the Commanders, but he’ll face a considerably better secondary and ferocious pass rush in this contest. Dallas is top five in all pass rush metrics and the coverage unit has mostly held up since losing Trevon Diggs.
Hurts had 11 carries for 21 yards in the win against Miami and followed it with four carries for six against Washington. If he’s not going to run the ball because of the knee issue, the Eagles clear rush offense advantage against this Dallas front becomes harder to exploit.
Verdict: Bet Dallas +3 & Over 46 | Look to target Hurts rush yards under props
Bills vs. Bengals
Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s success against the top QBs and offenses in the NFL has been a sight to behold in the NFL for the last few years. Joe Burrow and the offense get all of the credit but if you just compare offensive and defensive efficiency in those playoff wins, Anarumo was the primary architect of them.
In this matchup, though, it’s all about Burrow and the Bengals' offensive success last week coming out of their bye week. Burrow finally looked healthy, and the pass map reflected exactly that. The three touchdown passes all traveled outside the numbers and at least eight yards down the field. Burrow’s elite accuracy on those throws defined this Bengals offense when it was at its best.
Burrow was 8-of-9 with two touchdowns on passes 10 or more yards down the field against the 49ers defense. His Next Gen pass map is below:
I wrote last week that the Bills defense was quite overvalued in the market but that the Buccaneers were not the team I wanted to fade the defense against. Tampa Bay had some modest offensive success, but this is the spot where the Bills' defensive injuries at multiple levels finally catch up to them. The Bills are bottom seven in success rate allowed and bottom four in EPA allowed since Week 5.
Buffalo’s offense remains a supernova that ranks second in efficiency, first in success rate and third in dropback success rate. In the recent past, a matchup with two elite offenses like this would open in the 50s.
The total is still too low at 48.5. I know that offense in the red zone has been an issue all year league-wide, but the market has overreacted. This market opened 46.5 and I’d still bet it up to 49.
Verdict: Bet Over 48.5
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