When checking out Sean Koerner's Action Labs projections, it was odd how many player props stood out during the late slate of Sunday in Week 12.
Below are three picks that I have bet already and see big value on using the numbers. Check them out and check out Action Labs every week for the best projections and edges in the props market.
George Kittle
Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
I’ve faded tight ends against the Saints multiple times this season, and we’re going to do it again in Week 12. Kittle is projected for just 36.4 receiving yards by Action Labs.
New Orleans has the No. 1 defense against opposing tight ends, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, this season, allowing just 35.7 receiving yards to the position per game. So, it makes sense that Kittle is projected for just 36.4 receiving yards by Action Labs.
Here’s what the Saints have done to tight ends every week this season:
- Week 1, Kyle Pitts: 2 catches, 19 yards
- Week 2, Cameron Brate: 1 catch, 9 yards
- Week 3, Ian Thomas: 2 catches, 13 yards
- Week 4, Irv Smith Jr.: 3 catches, 23 yards
- Week 5, Noah Fant: 3 catches, 49 yards
- Week 6, Hayden Hurst: 3 catches, 21 yards
- Week 7, Zach Ertz: 2 catches, 21 yards
- Week 8, Foster Moreau: 6 catches, 31 yards
- Week 9, Isaiah Likely: 1 catch, 24 yards
- Week 10, Pat Freiermuth: 4 catches, 36 yards
- Week 11, Tyler Higbee: 4 catches, 45 yards
That’s one tight end all season that has gone over this total. Don’t overthink it. Fade Kittle.
Kyler Murray
Under 251.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
There’s a big edge here, with Action Labs projecting Murray for 221.5 passing yards, 27 yards below the largest line available as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Saturday.
The Chargers defense ranks 11th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric against the pass but 30th against the run. With Murray just coming back from injury, it would make a lot of sense for Arizona to feed James Conner and Keontay Ingram this week and keep the ball on the ground.
Also, this number is unusually high for Murray, who has gone under it in three of his last four games and five of his nine total appearances this season.
Justin Watson
Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (BetRivers)
As the Chiefs have dealt with injuries to their receiving corps, a consistent target has emerged.
Justin Watson has gone from playing anywhere between 10-26% of snaps in the Chiefs’ first eight games to 73% and 88% over the last two. He’s eclipsed this total in two of his last three games, as well.
Last week, when the Chiefs were without both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, Watson had three catches on four targets for 67 receiving yards against the Chargers.
Hardman will be out again this week, as will Kadarius Toney. The Chiefs should blow the Matthew Stafford-less Rams out, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if a bunch of Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards went Watson’s way.
Watson is projected for 28.7 receiving yards by Action Labs. You can still get his total at 18.5 at BetRivers, but it’s 19.5 at BetMGM and DraftKings, as of 5:45 p.m. ET on Saturday.
