Scoring will be on the agenda for a second straight Sunday Night Football matchup. But just like last week's scorcher between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots, that doesn't necessarily equate to an easy player prop betting card.
Still, we went 2-0 by keeping it sweet and simple in Week 6, and we're doing the same this Sunday by targeting the weakness of the Chiefs' defense against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Here are our records on the year:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 138-65 (67%)
- My picks: 13-3 (81%)
- Bet the Prop Record: 123-93 (57%)
Be sure to check out the rest of our Week 7 best prop bets.
Because lines and odds will often move between now and kickoff, after every selection I’ll note the number I’d be willing to play to, as well as where I would draw the line on odds.
Bengals TE C.J. Uzomah
Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-130 @ 5 Dimes)
Uzomah's usage ticked upward after the Bengals lost Tyler Eifert (ankle) to injury, then spiked again a week later when Tyler Kroft (foot) also went down.
Uzomah had six catches on seven targets for 54 yards — all season highs — against the Steelers in Week 6 and has eclipsed this 34.5 total in 3-of-6 appearances.
The path to sustained production is clear against a Chiefs defense that defends the position poorly.
The Chiefs have surrendered 8.5 targets and six receptions per game to opposing tight ends — the third- and fourth-worst marks in the league, respectively — and their average of 91.3 yards against ranks second to last.
Sean Koerner's projections give Uzomah 40.3 yards, giving us a nice cushion in what should be a shootout.
I'd play this number to 37.5 yards, and at our line of 34.5, would be willing to pay the vig to about -140.
Bengals QB Andy Dalton
Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-135 @ 5 Dimes)
This game's 57 over/under is the highest total for any game this week and implies 26.3 points for Dalton and the Bengals.
Against the league's second-highest scoring offense, Dalton is going to be busy. And we know that the Chiefs are accommodating against opposing quarterbacks: No team has surrendered more passing yards than the 2,042 piled up by quarterbacks facing Kansas City.
Quarterbacks have attempted 45 throws per game against Kansas City, which also ranks dead last. The Chiefs have given up at least 340 yards in 4-of-6 games, including lines of 452 yards to Ben Roethlisberger, 430 to Blake Bortles and 424 to Philip Rivers.
This line is simply too low given the potential for a shootout and the leaky Chiefs secondary.
I'd continue to play the over until about 288.5 passing yards, and while we're already paying plenty of juice, I'd still be willing to pay to -140.
