In Week 2, I went 4-for-5 on my NFL player props piece, including a +210 anytime TD hit on DK Metcalf.
After taking Week 3 off (thanks, NASCAR), I'm back for Week 4 with more player props. Find out how I would play Brock Bowers, Trey Palmer and Demarcus Robinson on Sunday.
Dr. Nick's NFL Player Prop Bets
- TE Brock Bowers Under 4.5 Receptions (-140)
- WR Trey Palmer Over 1.5 Receptions (-115)
- WR Demarcus Robinson Longest Reception Under 19.5 Yards (-119)
- WR Mike Williams Longest Reception Over 16.5 Yards (-120)
Update: Now that WR Davante Adams and TE Michael Mayer have been ruled out, Bowers' receptions line increased to 5.5 with -114 juice to the under at FanDuel. If you didn't originally bet this prop at under 4.5, I'd recommend taking the new under as I'm projecting a median closer to 5.0.
Raiders QB Gardner Minshew has had a bit of a stronger start than expected despite Vegas' 1-2 record. His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) of +4.8% is almost six percentage points better than his career average. A matchup against Cleveland won't help, as the Browns allowed the lowest completion rate last year and sit at the fourth-lowest completion rate allowed so far in 2024.
There's reason to think that the expectation should also be lower this week as well. That's because Minshew's average intended air yards has been 6.1 so far this year, compared to 7.3 for his career, so we can expect some regression to longer pass attempts. That's especially true against Cleveland, which allowed an aDOT of 7.4 yards last year and currently sits at 9.1 so far in 2024.
Longer passing doesn't benefit Brock Bowers, who has an aDOT of just 5.6 in his young career. Add in a tough matchup against the Browns — who allowed the lowest target volume to the TE position in 2023 and currently sit bottom half in 2024 — and there's room to think Bowers just doesn't see enough volume in Week 4.
That low volume in part can be attributed to Cleveland's coverage schemes. The Browns have also played the third-most man coverage so far in 2024 after topping the league last year. Bowers has just one target against man coverage through three weeks.
With the Raiders favored, there's potential for a run-heavy expectation, and there's also likely room for the Raiders to be more run heavy even versus expectation. So far, Vegas has +3.6% pass rate over expectation (PROE). Raiders offensive coordinate Luke Getsy averaged -9.5% in his two years as the Bears OC. While that was with Justin Fields, even if we just use the Raiders under HC Antonio Pierce, they had a -2% PROE in his nine games at the helm last year.
I'm projecting Bowers for a median closer to 3.5 receptions with quite a low floor this week if you want to take any alternate unders at elevated odds.
With rookie WR Jalen McMillan doubtful to play, Trey Palmer takes back the WR3 role in this Tampa Bay offense.
Palmer had this role last season and he cleared 1.5 receptions in 13 out of 19 games (including the playoffs).
Both of Tampa Bay's top-two RBs are also questionable, which may force Baker Mayfield into more passing attempts.
I'd play this closer to -180 as I have Palmer's median closer to 2.5 receptions.
Demarcus Robinson has the highest aDOT on the Rams at 16.3 yards, but that's not going to be helpful on a day when there's 17 mph winds with gusts north of 25 mph. So while the Bears do struggle against the deep ball, it should be harder for Matthew Stafford and Robinson to connect on explosive plays.
Robinson's aDOT is also four yards longer than last year, so there's room for regression here, especially if the Rams wisen up to the conditions and have Stafford throw passes a bit shorter on average.
If they do that, the Bears defense should hold Robinson in check since Chicago ranks fourth in DVOA against short passes.
With no Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and a depleted offensive line, the Rams have also been more rush heavy the last two weeks with Stafford averaging just 26 pass attempts. Similar low volume would definitely favor the under here.
The Denver Broncos have been a top-five unit in generating pressure, and also play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Both of those should benefit Williams, either through efficiency or opportunity.
Williams has been much better against man coverage than zone coverage throughout his career, and has started the same way in 2024 with a new team and new QB in Aaron Rodgers, catching three of four targets against the man-heavy New England Patriots with a long of 18 yards.
However, the Broncos generate pressure at an even higher rate than the Patriots, which should force Rodgers into deeper throws. Rodgers averages a 9.5 aDOT against pressure, compared to just a 7.2 aDOT with a clean pocket. This is a normal trend for him, as he was 13.4 to 7.4 in this metric in his most recent full-time season in 2022, and posted similar splits in 2021.
Williams has the highest aDOT on this Jets team, as he did in previous seasons with the Chargers. So even if his volume or efficiency suffers, he can always clear this on just one catch.
