In Week 2, I went 4-for-5 on my player props piece, including a +210 anytime TD hit on D.K. Metcalf. After taking Week 3 off from the piece (thanks, NASCAR) I'm back for Week 4 with more player props, and I'm getting an early start with a prop on Raiders' TE Brock Bowers for Sunday's 4:25 p.m. ET game.
I'll add more here as we get through the weekend.
Dr. Nick's NFL Player Prop Bets
- Brock Bowers Under 4.5 Receptions (-140)
Raiders QB Gardner Minshew has had a bit of a stronger start than expected despite Vegas' 1-2 record. His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) of +4.8% is almost six percentage points better than his career average. A matchup against Cleveland won't help, as the Browns allowed the lowest completion rate last year and sit at the fourth-lowest completion rate allowed so far in 2024.
There's reason to think that the expectation should also be lower this week as well. That's because Minshew's average intended air yards has been 6.1 so far this year, compared to 7.3 for his career, so we can expect some regression to longer pass attempts. That's especially true against Cleveland, which allowed an aDOT of 7.4 yards last year and currently sits at 9.1 so far in 2024.
Longer passing doesn't benefit Brock Bowers, who has an aDOT of just 5.6 in his young career. Add in a tough matchup against the Browns — who allowed the lowest target volume to the TE position in 2023 and currently sit bottom half in 2024 — and there's room to think Bowers just doesn't see enough volume in Week 4.
That low volume in part can be attributed to Cleveland's coverage schemes. The Browns have also played the third-most man coverage so far in 2024 after topping the league last year. Bowers has just one target against man coverage through three weeks.
With the Raiders favored, there's potential for a run-heavy expectation, and there's also likely room for the Raiders to be more run heavy even versus expectation. So far, Vegas has +3.6% pass rate over expectation (PROE). Raiders offensive coordinate Luke Getsy averaged -9.5% in his two years as the Bears OC. While that was with Justin Fields, even if we just use the Raiders under HC Antonio Pierce, they had a -2% PROE in his nine games at the helm last year.
I'm projecting Bowers for a median closer to 3.5 receptions with quite a low floor this week if you want to take any alternate unders at elevated odds.
