The Sunday Night Football affair may set up to be an exciting one, but it's a tough card from a prop-betting perspective.
I find the hardest teams to handicap are those with good, well-balanced offenses that like spread the ball around indiscriminately, and the Chiefs and Patriots epitomize that approach.
The Player Props tool concurs. Whereas last week's Sunday night slate had several bets with a quality rating of 10, this Sunday nighter has just one.
So it won't be a busy card, but let's see what we can unearth for value.
Here are our records on the year:
Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 107-58 (63%)
Sunday Night Football Record: 3-1 (75%)
Bet the Prop Record: 123-93 (57%)
Because lines and odds will often move between now and kickoff, after every selection I'll note the number I'd be willing to play to, as well as where I would draw the line on odds.
Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski
Under 6 Receptions (-114 @ Betonline)
With a projection of 4.8 receptions, this is the lone player prop with a Bet Quality of 10 in the Props Tool.
Gronkowski has posted six catches or fewer in four straight weeks following a seven-reception effort in Week 1.
While the Chiefs do allow an average of 6.6 catches per game to opposing tight ends (third most), we're betting that the New England offense will remain balanced and spread the ball around, leading to limited smash spots for Gronk.
With Julian Edelman back and Josh Gordon being incorporated more into the offense each week, the Patriots now have an arsenal at full strength. They have no need to lean heavily on the big guy, especially as he's still nursing an aching ankle.
I wouldn't play this number any lower than six, and I also would not be willing to pay much more juice than the current vig.
Patriots WR Julian Edelman
Under 73.5 Yards (-130 @ Betonline)
Edelman returned from his suspension to post seven catches for 57 yards against the Colts last week.
He'll be busy once again, but his lack of big-play ability means that this number is just a little too high. While the target volume will be there, Edelman had just 43 Air Yards last week — the 74th fewest among all wide receivers.
The Chiefs have been killed by pass-catching backs but have performed at a reasonable level against opposing receivers, surrendering an average of 179 receiving yards per game.
Our projections give Edelman 63.8 receiving yards, and that 16% discrepancy gives us a Bet Quality of 8 in the tool.
I'd play this number to 70.5, but no lower, and we're already paying plenty of juice at -130, so I wouldn't be willing to pay more to make this bet.
