I had too many NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 2, so here we are. Below, I'm laying out some of my favorite picks for the Sunday afternoon slate.
Check out my picks, which are on various markets, below.
Dr. Nick's NFL Player Prop Bets
- Deebo Samuel Under 5.5 Rush Attempts (-138; FanDuel)
- DK Metcalf Anytime Touchdown (+210; FanDuel)
- Trenton Irwin Under 2.5 Receptions (-160; DraftKings)
- Matthew Stafford Under 23.5 Completions (-105; bet365)
- Cade Otton Over 2.5 receptions (+115; bet365)
Samuel had eight rush attempts in Week 1 with Christian McCaffrey out, probably pushing this line up.
Samuel hasn't had more than five rushing attempts since the 2022 playoffs — before McCaffrey joined the team — and was surely tasked with handling a bit bigger load on short notice.
Now with more than a full week to prepare with CMC out, backup RB Jordan Mason should be fully entrusted as the starter. More importantly, fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo is also in line to pick up some rush attempts after a full week as the No. 2 on the depth chart.
The 49ers may also rush less. San Francisco had a PROE (pass rate over expectation) of -10.5%, which is more than 8% more rush-heavy than they were last year (-2.2% PROE). It's also possible that expectation tilts toward a more pass-heavy script as well, since San Francisco led by multiple scores the whole second half.
Metcalf has always been a machine at beating man coverage, logging more TDs and better yards-per-route-run each of the last three seasons, despite zone coverage being the prevailing scheme across the league.
This week he gets to face the Patriots, who played the seventh-most man coverage in Week 1. He'll draw a tough matchup against second-year CB Christian Gonzalez who looks like a star in the making, but Gonzalez only played in four games last year before injuring his shoulder and missing the rest of the season.
Metcalf has the size and experience advantage that he should put to good use. I have fair value on this at +190.
Irwin ran 33 routes as Cincy's WR3 last week against New England in what was surprisingly a trailing game script in a game they were favored to win by 7.5 points. This week, a more pass-heavy script is expected, and I do have Bengals' QB Joe Burrow projected for one of the highest totals of pass attempts on the slate.
That said, Burrow struggled both as the game went on, and with deeper throws, two signs that don't trend well for later-game passing accuracy deep.
Those trends are important because if Cincy is in a trailing game script, we'd expect the bulk of the passes to come in the second half. With Tee Higgins out, Irwin currently holds the top spot as the Bengal pass catcher with the longest aDOT.
From experience with this wrist injury, Burrow's deep ball accuracy and velocity should be negatively impacted, especially as the game wears on. That makes his deep target threat less likely to catch passes.
In addition, Cincy's top WR option Ja'Marr Chase had only a 20.7% target share in Week 1, which is likely to go up in Week 2.
I'm projecting Irwin's receptions slightly under 2.0 with a 69% chance to stay under 2.5, so this is closer to -190.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings use the win probability from our Expected Scores and compare them to a team's actual win-loss percentage.
However, another way to use them is to compare them to final scores, rather than wins and losses. By this metric, the Cardinals' six-point loss was lucky, when they were expected to lose by 19 points by Expected Score.
Similarly, the Rams' OT loss was closer than the final score indicated, which means I'm showing the Rams as a significantly unlucky road team this week when looking through that lens.
As a result, I'm expecting the Rams to actually be the favorite in this matchup, which should generate a positive game script — meaning Stafford would need to throw less than the market projects.
When he does throw, I'm projecting less accuracy thanks to the Rams' banged-up offensive line and loss of start second-year WR Puka Nacua.
Finally, Arizona is likely to keep the clock running, which should afford the Rams fewer overall plays. The Cardinals had the second-lowest PROE last year but came in 5% more run-heavy in Week 1. Expect a few more rushes for Arizona, which should bleed some extra clock.
I have Stafford completing closer to 22.5 passes, staying under 59% of the time.
Last year, the Buccaneers had the second-most concentrated passing offense (see Target GINI) but in Week 1, they were only 14th in that metric. I expect them to rise toward the top again, with nearly the same personnel at skill positions.
One of the losers in the target category thanks to the extra spread last week was TE Cade Otton, who only saw two pass attempts come his way compared to an average of 3.9 per game last year.
Otton should benefit from a solid matchup this week in Detroit. The Lions allowed the 10th-most targets to TEs last year and yielded five last week to Rams first-stringer Colby Parkinson — who isn't exactly a target hog.
With a likely trailing game script against the favored Lions, I'm projecting Otton for around three receptions on closer to 4.5 targets.
