The five most valuable props for Monday night's Wild Card Round game between the Cowboys and Buccaneers target skill position players across the field, according to the Action Network's predictive analytics.
Those in the top five include Mike Evans, CeeDee Lamb and Chris Godwin.
However, the metrics are incredibly bearish on the aforementioned wide receivers.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Cowboys vs. Bucs
- Chris Godwin under 6.5 receptions +115 (DraftKings)
- Leonard Fournette under 4.5 receptions -140 (DraftKings)
- Mike Evans under 5.5 receptions -160 (DraftKings)
- Leonard Fournette over 10.5 rush attempts -114 (FanDuel)
- CeeDee Lamb under 5.5 receptions +115 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Saturday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices, according to our predictive models.
The algorithms really don't like how the market is setting wide receiver receptions for Monday night's game.
Four of the main skill position players on Monday have overvalued reception markets, according to the predictive data.
Godwin's line at 6.5 should be closer to 5.5. That gives this pick a roughly 20% betting edge when accounting for the +115 vig.
Effectively, you're getting a 20% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.
Another way to think about it: You're accumulating 20% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're all but assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Evans is expected to catch 4.3 passes. At u5.5 (-160), you're receiving about 11% in betting edge for this prop.
Fournette's receptions prop should be closer to 3.5, according to our algorithms. At -140, the edge at u4.5 receptions is only 9%.
Lamb's total of 5.5 receptions is just about fair price. Our algorithms predict 5.4 catches, but with the plus-money vig, we're giving this pick about a 4% betting edge.
The only over among the bunch is Fournette's rushing attempts prop as the algorithms expect the Bucs to frantically rush the ball on Monday night. It's how they were able to beat the Cowboys 19-3 in Week 1 — establishing the run. Generally, the Bucs are most successful when they run the ball well.
In games where the Bucs rush for 65 or more yards — including vs. Dallas, where they put up a season-high 152 yards — Tampa Bay is 7-3. In all other contests, they're 1-5. (These metrics aren't counting a Week 18 contest in which Brady rested for half the game.)
Fournette is expected to rush 12 times on Monday night. His over of 10.5 at (-114) provides about 5% in betting edge.
