We close NFL Week 5 with a matchup that fits our Luck Rankings with an edge on the New Orleans Saints. Chris Raybon is also on the under.
I have a player prop for Monday Night Football.
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Saints vs. Chiefs Player Prop
Foster Moreau has only cleared this in one of four games so far this season, and that was back in Week 1 when he had four receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown. In that game, Moreau played ahead of Juwan Johnson, who was eased into the season due to a foot injury that required surgery right before training camp.
Last week, we saw Johnson dominate the pass catching snaps among Saints tight ends last week. Moreau saw a season-low 15% routes run rate because he was staying in to block a ton.
Moreau is the better blocking tight end between him and Johnson, and that's the skill that will be required more tonight. The Saints will be without starting center Shane Lemieux, Erick McCoy, typical starter is on IR) and right guard Cesar Ruiz and might also be without left guard Lucas Patrick, who is questionable.
I think Saints rather have Moreau staying in to block even more and if does run a route/draw a target, it’ll be closer to the line of scrimmage.
Moreau has caught all three of his targets 10+ yards downfield this season (an expected catch rate of 65% on those targets), so he's due for catch% regression if he does draw a target downfield.
I'm projecting Moreau's median closer to 7.5 with around a 60% chance he stays under 11.5.
