The Jaguars and Eagles meet in London for Week 8, and we're kicking off our coverage of the week's best player prop bets with two wagers from that game.
With a 9:30am EST kickoff on tap, you're going to want to lock in any action early, especially since two of highest-rated wagers in the Player Props Tool come from that contest.
Here are the records on the year:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 152-73 (66%)
- Article picks : 17-6 (74%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 158-122 (56%)
We've got five favorite bets for Week 8, and we start with the showdown in London.
Be sure out all our favorite head-to-head player prop bets as well, and follow us on Twitter for more recommendations throughout the weekend.
Jaguars RB Carlos Hyde
Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Hyde has been gifted a generous line considering he's making his debut for a sputtering offense while facing an elite run defense.
He'll obviously have a role, but it likely won't resemble his role in Cleveland where he averaged 19 carries a game. TJ Yeldon has been busy, averaging 16 carries in games without Leonard Fournette this season, and something approaching a timeshare between the two seems reasonable.
- The Eagles have given up 387 yards to running backs (per Pro Football Reference), third-fewest this season
- However, 130 of those (35%) came against one back — Saquon Barkley.
- They've held every other running back to 42 yards or less.
With a Bet Quality of 10, this is one of the top props in the tool. I'd happily give away another four yards and would pay the take to -130.
Jaguars WR Donte Moncreif
Over 3.5 Receptions (+100)
Instead, I expect the Jaguars to attack Philadelphia's porous pass defense which gives up the second-most receptions and the third-most yards to opposing wide receivers.
Not only have the Eagles been dusted for 80 yards or more by six receivers, but in just seven games, they've also allowed 13 different receivers to hit at least four receptions.
Suddenly sporting leaky defense, the Jaguars may have to pivot pass happy in a bid to keep up with an Eagles offense rejuvenated under a healthy Wentz. That bodes well for Moncreif, who leads the team in targets and averages five catches per game, 1.5 catches clear of this line.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this line to move off of these plus odds and would happily keep paying it until it hits the normal vig of -122.
Seahawks QB Russel Wilson
Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Lions are a significant outlier when it comes to defending running quarterbacks.
Riding a dominant defensive line which ranks third in sacks per game, Detroit has yielded just 19 rushing yards to quarterbacks on 17 attempts. That 1.1-yard average is 59% better than the next-closest team, Arizona at 2.7 YPC.
And it's not like they've been facing the reincarnation of Drew Bledsoe out there:
- Dak Prescott: 19 yards on five carries
- Matt Ryan: 18 yards on four carries
- Alex Smith: 13 yards on six carries
- Carson Wentz: three yards on three carries
As Wilson's fantasy owners are aware, he hasn't been running nearly as much this season. He's averaging 3.8 carries and 10.3 yards per game.
With a our projections giving him 15.3 yards, I wouldn't play this number much lower but would be willing to pay down to -122.
James Conner > Saquon Barkley, Carries
(-122 @ Betonline.ag)
Saquon Barkley is being priced in these head-to-head props as if he's among the league leaders in carries, but he's not that guy.
The electric rookie ranks 14th among all running backs with 14 carries per game. For perspective, that's one fewer than Jordan Howard.
Washington is not a team that you want to attack on the ground, as its league-low 97 rush attempts against can attest to.
Meanwhile, Conner is averaging 21.7 carries per game, 55% more than Barkley. When his Steelers met the Browns in Week 1, Conner ran the ball 31 times.
Broncos RB Devontae Booker
Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Booker is a questionable talent, and I'm not sure he'll soak up that much more work with the absence of Royce Freeman. Even so, he doesn't need much more to beat this pathetically low line.
Some simple math:
- Booker's been averaging two carries per game.
- Freeman had been averaging 10 carries before suffering an ankle sprain.
- Even if we conservatively give Booker just 40% of the vacant work, he'll hit six carries.
- And even if he's inefficient at 3.0 YPC (he's averaging 3.9 YPC on the year), he'll still hit 18 yards.
The Broncos currently only list two running backs on the roster; other than Lindsay, they have no one else to turn to against a Chiefs defense giving up the seventh-most yards to opposing backs.
Another rated-10 bet in the props tool, our projection of 23.1 yards is clear of the implied total by a full 26 percent. I'd play this number to 19.5 and would pay the vig to -130.
