A stellar matchup in prime time in the dome between two high-powered teams means we're left with inflated player prop lines.
So it's no surprise that the top bets in the Player Props Tool are all unders, across the board. That means another night of fading players.
Here are the records on the year:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 152-73 (66%)
- Article picks : 17-6 (74%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 158-122 (56%)
Be sure to check out all of our favorite head-to-head player prop bets, as well, and follow us on Twitter for more recommendations throughout the weekend.
Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph
Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ Betonline.ag)
With an average of 35.2 per game, no team gives up fewer yards to tight ends than the Saints. They're much more vulnerable to wide receivers, yielding the 10th-most yards to the position. And that's where I expect the Vikings to attack.
Already highly volume dependent, Rudolph has seen his workload trending in the wrong direction — and he hasn't been efficient, either.
- His targets have decreased in every game since Week 2, bottoming out at four in each of the past two weeks.
- He ranks seventh in targets among all TEs over the past month, but ninth in yards.
Rudolph put up 28 yards on eight targets when these two teams met in the playoffs last season.
This is one of the better bets in the props tool with a rating of seven. I'd play this number down to 37.5.
Vikings RB Latavius Murray
Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114 @ Sportsbook.com)
The Saints have not only yielded the fewest yards to opposing TEs, they've also given up fewer rushing yards than every other team.
Opponents have managed just 3.1 yards per carry against the Saints. In total, New Orleans has surrendered just 434 rushing yards, 90 fewer than the next-closest team, Washington.
The Saints have also allowed just 139 attempts, sixth-fewest in the league, as teams are forced to pass to keep up.
Murray is averaging 66.8 yards rushing in games in which Dalvin Cook has been out, but the majority of that production came in a 24-carry, 155-yard outing against the Cardinals' second-worst rush defense.
Take away that game, and Murray has averaged 37 rushing yards in games without Cook this season, and the Saints present his biggest challenge yet.
This line is too big against such a strong run defense in a game in which the Vikings will have to pass to win.
I'd play the number down to 57.5 and would pay to vig to -122 before reconsidering.
