I've found my NFL player prop for Monday Night Football tonight.
For Texans vs. Cowboys, I'm fading a C.J. Stroud market tonight. Let's get into my NFL prop.
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C.J. Stroud Player Prop
Update: The line has moved back up to 237.5 at BetMGM as of 7 p.m. ET, which I would still play.
I’m going to work backwards with my prop write-up today and just tell you that I’m projecting C.J. Stroud’s median closer to 220.5 yards with about a 60% chance he stays under 240.5.
It’s important to note, that this in no way me saying/thinking that Stroud will struggle tonight against the Cowboys, instead it’s the opposite. I realize it’s probably never “fun” betting/rooting for an under, especially on a star player like Stroud. But I’m going to lay out sort of a “how to root for this prop.”
When the Cowboys Have the Ball
Wait, isn’t this a Stroud under? What are we rooting for when the Cowboys have the ball?
Well, as with all props, there are just as many things to root for even when the opposing team has the ball.
To increase the chances of Stroud staying under 240.5 yards, we need the Cowboys offense to not put up many points. If the Cowboys get out to an early lead, it’s just going to force Stroud into a pass-heavy game script and only help his over. So, when Dallas has the ball tonight, we want it to lean run-heavy in order to eat time off the clock while also not racking up explosive plays and putting points on the board.
The Texans have an excellent defense with the second-highest pressure rate that is also excellent in coverage, having allowed the lowest completion percentage in the league. Houston also has a good run defense (second in DVOA) but can be prone to give up chunk gains on the ground.
With Cooper Rush under center for the Cowboys tonight, we should get an ideal environment for what I just laid out. I expect Dallas to lean on its run game as much as possible while the game is still close in order to help keep the Texans offense off the field.
We will be rooting for Dallas to be run-heavy early while struggling to put up points. There's no better drive than a long Dallas drive that ends in a pick-six. Anytime Cooper Rush drops back to pass, rooting for Stroud’s under is rooting for Rush to throw a pick-six or turn it over in any fashion really.
When the Texans Have the Ball
Obviously, we are rooting for Stroud to not complete passes and rack up yards. But rooting for this under isn’t simply rooting for Stroud to not complete passes. He’s going to complete passes tonight — a lot of them!
What we want is for him to be productive and efficient early on. We want the Texans to get up by a touchdown or more as early as possible. If the Texans are driving and are on the Cowboys' 10-yard line, first-and-goal, I’ll be rooting for Stroud to throw a 10-yard touchdown pass.
If the Texans can get off to an early lead on the back of Joe Mixon with a run-heavy game plan, that would just be icing on the cake. Mixon is set up for a big game against a Cowboys run defense that ranks 28th in Rush DVOA. We want him to get some big runs early and often, so rooting for this Stroud under is also rooting for Mixon to have a big game on the ground.
Stroud should get a huge boost with his top WR Nico Collins back in the lineup. I also think that will only help the Texans get off to a fast start and set up a more run-heavy game script in the second half.
However, pressure could be an issue for Stroud tonight. His offensive line has struggled to protect him recently as he’s been under pressure on 40% or more of his dropbacks in six straight games. He will be facing a Cowboys defense that ranks fourth in pressure rate and recently got Micah Parsons back. Stroud’s efficiency takes a big hit when facing pressure, so it would make even more sense for the Texans to lean on their run game tonight, especially since backup RB Dameon Pierce is expected to return to action. He should help give Mixon the occasional breather in what should be a run-heavy game plan. Stroud has also been using his legs to scramble a lot more when under pressure this year, so anytime he can pick up a first down with his legs, it’s massive for the under.
The Texans may also be a bit less aggressive with their play calling considering they are going up against a Cooper Rush-led offense. The Texans are already fairly run heavy, with a -4% pass rate over expected in neutral situations. However, they are one of the most pass-heavy teams when it’s second-and-short (1-2 yards) +23% and third-and-short (1-2 yards) +21%. It’s an aggressive move by OC Bobby Slowik when he calls a pass on those plays, but he realizes it’s more of a free pass play in what’s typically a run-heavy situation, knowing if they don’t pick up the 1st down on the pass play, they can just run it the following play. They’ve dialed back on that strategy when playing with the lead and is one of the sneakiest reasons I like the under.
Recap
When Dallas has the ball we want them running the clock, while not scoring many points. Pick-sixes are the best possible play for this prop!
When the Texans have the ball we want them putting up points early, ideally with their running game. It’s OK if Stroud throws for yards early on if they lead to TDs/getting them into a more run-heavy game script.
Specifically look to see how the Texans are handling 2nd/3rd and short situations. If they are feeding Mixon/Pierce in those situations to pick up the first down, as opposed to passing it, that will be massive for the under. I do expect them to take shots in these situations, but I think they will be less aggressive with these as they lean on the defense and run game tonight.
