I've found my NFL player prop for Monday Night Football tonight.
For Ravens vs. Chargers, I'm backing Will Dissly as he continues his strong run in the Chargers offense. Let's get into my NFL prop.
Will Dissly Player Prop
I’m projecting Dissly closer to 46.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to clear 40.5. I love his upside tonight and ladders are in play. I would recommend looking to FanDuel, where Dissly is +245 to get 60 receiving yards and +370 to tally 70.
Here's what I have as fair odds for Dissly ladders:
| Alt Total | Fair Odds |
|---|---|
| 50+ | +105 |
| 60+ | +165 |
| 70+ | +300 |
| 80+ | +515 |
| 90+ | +820 |
| 100+ | +1480 |
I was sounding the alarm on Will Dissly's breakout last week, talking him up on every episode of the "Fantasy Flex" podcast and gave out his anytime touchdown scorer prop on "Convince Me," which cashed at +425. I think he keeps it rolling tonight and has even more going his way than usual.
Hayden Hurst opened the season as the Chargers' main pass-catching tight end, running a route on 72% of Justin Herbert's dropbacks from Weeks 1-5. Dissly only ran a route on 30%, but he was still getting a ton of playing time because of his blocking ability.
However, since the Chargers' Week 6 bye, Dissly has stepped up as their lead tight end following Hurst's injury. Since then, Dissly is averaging a 66% routes run rate and is the clear lead tight end for Los Angeles. Hurst, meanwhile, was a healthy scratch last week and has been ruled out of this game against the Ravens due to a hip injury. Stone Smartt and Tucker Fisk have inherited Dissly's old blocking role and typically see playing time in more run-heavy, two-TE sets.
Here are routes run rates this season for Chargers tight ends:
Because of this, Dissly’s playing time and usage are going to be much higher when the Chargers are in a close or trailing game script when they need to throw at a higher rate. Tonight could be the best matchup for that all season.
The Chargers are 2.5-point home 'dogs against the Ravens, which sets up for a close game and one that the Chargers potentially end up trailing at some point. Los Angeles is 7-3 but has faced the eighth-easiest schedule to date, so that kind of trailing game script hasn’t been common this season. In fact, the Chargers have only trailed 18% of the time this season, which is the lowest rate in the NFL, but I’m projecting them to trail 45% of the time tonight. Again, they might get up early and once again not end up in a trailing game script, but this is just a projection since teams that are 2.5-point underdogs typically trail 45% of the game.
Dissly is tied with Ladd McConkey for targets when trailing on the Chargers. He has a 24.6% target share when trailing compared to 17.2% when leading. If you just look at when Dissly is on the field and running a route, his target rate goes from 27% with the lead to 40% when trailing. He will get a huge boost tonight if the Chargers end up in a trailing game script
Ladd McConkey is questionable with a shoulder injury. I’m expecting him to play and projecting him to be at 100%, but if he’s unable to suit up or plays at anything less than 100%, it would only lead to more Dissly targets than expected.
Also, it's a good matchup for this prop against the Ravens defense. Baltimore has allowed eight tight ends in 11 games to clear this number this season.
