Entering Monday Night Football, I'm 13-0 with my Week 2 picks, so let's end it on a high note on Monday Night Football. If you're not already doing so, follow me in the Action App for all of my picks.
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A.J. Brown has been ruled out, which is going to lead to a handful of targets to get spread around to other Eagles pass catchers.
Dallas Goedert certainly gets a boost but probably not as much as the market thinks. That's why I think we are getting decent value here with his prop all the way up to 43.5.
I was a bit down on Goedert heading into this season because adding an elite pass-catching RB like Saquon Barkley could directly eat into his target share. We didn’t see that happen in Week 1 with Barkley drawing just two targets, but I'm expecting his target rate to go up.
Philly also upgraded its No. 3 WR with Jahan Dotson, who may be fully up to speed with the scheme and playbook by now. He should step up into Brown’s place today with other WRs like Johnny Wilson, Britain Covey or even Parris Campbell drawing a few targets tonight.
Goedert’s average depth of target was just one yard downfield in Week 1, and the Falcons did an excellent job of limiting Pat Friermuth to 4/27/0 in their season opener. Freiermuth and Goedert have similar route trees. Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss and safety Justin Simmons did an excellent job of not giving Freiermuth room to run after the catch and force him out of bounds.
It should be easier for the Falcons defense to contain Goedert without Brown putting pressure on the Falcons defense to sit deep in coverage.
I'm projecting Goedert's median closer to 37.5 yards with around a 61% chance of staying under 43.5.
