My pick for this game is on the under, so it makes sense that my prop is one, as well. I'm expecting a lower-scoring game tonight to kick off NFL Week 5.
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Player Prop
White was one of my top bust candidates in fantasy football this year because I was concerned that fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving could cut into his workload, potentially even taking over as the lead back. We started to see that transition last week as the two backs nearly split work down the middle.
White is an excellent pass-catching back, so he’s still dominating pass-heavy snaps like on third down and in the Buccaneers' 2-minute offense. However, after failing to convert on three goal-line attempts over the first three weeks, Irving handled all three goal-line attempts last week, converting on one of them for a touchdown. Those are very valuable snaps for this market so if White has indeed lost the goal-line role, which is very possible, it would lower his floor here even more.
It’s also worth noting that white has only averaged 10.3 rush attempts per game this season in near perfect conditions to rack up carries. The Bucs have had a lead on 60% of their snaps, which is the second-highest rate in the league. Considering how pass-heavy Tampa Bay has been, it may even run less tonight as a two-point road underdog.
Last week, White only had six rush attempts heading into the Buccaneers' final drive despite them leading big all game against the Eagles. Then, he got four straight carries to ice the game and barely clear this number in near perfect conditions to clear it.
There are a ton of factors that suggest White will stay under double-digit rush attempts tonight, and I’m projecting him closer to 8.8 with around a 62% chance to stay under 9.5.
