We're kicking off Week 2 by betting an under for our Dolphins vs. Bills player prop on Thursday Night Football. I've analyzed how the Bills' receiving corps operated last week against the Cardinals and have found an edge.
Let's get into it.
Dolphins vs. Bills Player Prop: Curtis Samuel
Curtis Samuel
Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
I was interested to see how the Bills would handle their rotation of wide receivers in Week 1 with so many new pieces. Curtis Samuel appeared to be the odd man out.
Samuel only ran a route on 30% of Josh Allen's dropbacks last week against the Cardinals. I'd imagine a lot of that had to do with the fact that he was dealing with turf toe throughout training camp and his status for Week 1 was uncertain in the buildup to the game. I'm thinking Buffalo wanted to ease him back into action.
With just four days to prepare for this game, I think we could see Samuel be limited again. I expect that his playing time will increase as the season goes on, but it would come at the expense of Khalil Shakir, who has the most experience in Buffalo's offense among its wide receivers.
Even if Samuel does see a spike in playing time tonight, there are a handful of underlying factors that could see him stay under this total.
The Bills have featured a run-heavy offense since offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over in the middle of last season. Even when Josh Allen drops back to pass, there's a chance he scrambles and doesn't attempt a pass.
We could see Samuel involved in the running game on a designed rush attempt or two here to get him involved. If he's on a limited snap count, that would lower his floor even more for this prop.
The underlying data also suggests that Samuel's toe injury is still bothering him. He had a negative separation score last week, according to Fantasy Points Data. Samuel also looked like he was in quite a bit of pain after a seven-yard catch-and-run in the middle of the fourth quarter. He did not play another snap after that.
Elsewhere on the Bills offense, I also expect to see tight end Dalton Kincaid will bounce back with a bigger role after only getting two targets in Week 1.
I'm projecting Samuel's median closer to 14 yards with a 60% chance to stay under 18.5.
