I'm 10-0 on my NFL player props today entering Sunday Night Football, and have one final player prop in Bears vs. Texans tonight.
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Let's get into it!
Bears vs. Texans Player Prop: Rome Odunze
Rome Odunze Under 3.5 Rec -120
Rome Odunze had a rough debut, only catching one pass for 11 yards.
I expect him to bounce back eventually and be a legit stud at the NFL level, like he was in college.
However, he picked up an MCL sprain in Week 1 that looked like he would miss 1-2 weeks. But for the time being, it seems like he will suit up tonight.
It’s unclear if he’ll see limited playing time or how close he is to 100% health, but the odds of an in-game setback are elevated.
Keenan Allen is looking closer to doubtful, which will surely lead to more targets to go around, but DeAndre Carter could pick up most of his snaps. Carter was targeted on two of his three routes after coming in relief last week, so perhaps Odunze doesn’t see much of a target boost if Allen is out.
Odunze had a -42.3% catch rate over expected on his four targets, which isn’t ideal. It was mostly attested to him and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams not being on the same page. Odunze’s only catch was a flukey one since the pass was originally intended for DJ Moore. However, the pass bounced off his helmet into the air, and seamlessly into Odunze’s grasp.
With Allen’s injury, I’m projecting him to be out, with Odunze running a route on approximately 80% of WIlliams’ dropbacks and I’m still showing value on the under.
I’m expecting this game to be much closer, where the Bears will try to lean on the run as much as possible if they end up in a trailing game script.
It’ll be a more pass-heavy game script, which would hurt the prop, but the Bears may use that as a chance to rest him and prevent further injury with a more winnable game next week against the Colts.
Allen may even be a surprise active which I’m not even factoring in!
I’m projecting him closer to 3.2 receptions with closer to a 61% chance to stay under 3.5 with a handful of potential outs, that make it even more likely.
