I've found my NFL player prop pick for Thursday Night Football tonight.
For Texans vs. Jets, I'm fading a tight end who doesn't have a huge role in the New York passing game. Let's get into my NFL prop for tonight.
A reminder: Click here and enter the promo code "ACTION51" for $20 off the annual subscription price for Action PRO. You'll have everything you need to tail my picks as soon as they're available.
NFL Player Prop Pick
Since it’s Halloween, I’ve got a spooky, downright disgusting under for you. This one’s not for the faint of heart!
Jeremy Ruckert typically runs a route on about 20% of Rodgers dropbacks In what should be a more run-heavy and potentially rare leading game script for the Jets, this could mean about seven routes run for him tonight.
For this specific matchup, Ruckert may have to stay in and block more since the Texans have generated the highest pressure rate in the NFL. In defending tight ends in the passing game, Houston ranks second in DVOA and allows just 2.6 yards of separation on TE targets, which is the lowest mark in the NFL.
I have Ruckert right around a 50% chance to catch a pass tonight. His career median a catch is eight yards, and he stays under 7.5 on a catch 47% of the time and under 6.5 at a 35% clip.
I’m projecting Ruckert with a 59% chance to stay under 6.5 and a 63% chance to stay under 7.5.
| Team | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 4.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 5.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 6.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 7.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 8.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 9.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 10.5 | 26% | 74% |
Chuck Clark (injured reserve), Tony Adams (out) and Ashtyn Davis (out) are all out, meaning the Jets are down to three safeties. This was the case last week, as well, and the Jets opted to use Jalen Mills and Isaiah Oliver as the two main safeties with Jarius Monroe mixing in. We should see a similar plan tonight.
Also, linebacker CJ Mosley is also out and backup Chazz Surratt (heel) is questionable.
Last week, Oliver lined up in the box on 47% of his snaps and was able to rack up seven tackles against the Patriots. He’s a former cornerback and if you look at his game log, this isn’t a number he would typically clear. In this role, though, he'll have a ton of tackle opportunities in both the run and pass game.
I’m projecting him closer to 5.5 tackles + assists with around a 63% chance to clear 4.5 and absolutely love his upside tonight.
