When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner.
Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll. Each week, I'll identify which Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks have the most value when compared with Sean's projections.
Let's take a closer look at tonight's matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
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NFL Player Prop Picks for MNF
Ben Roethlisberger Under 245.5 Passing Yards
The Pittsburgh passing game has failed to generate the high-level production of past years. Last season, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tallied five games of 300 or more passing yards. Through seven games this season, Roethlisberger has only crested that number once.
Chicago enters this game with a surprising defensive split. The Bears are much worse against the run than the pass, ranking just 24th in run defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The Steelers have started to transition to a much heavier run-first attack as a result of Roethlisberger’s struggles and colder weather. Even though Pittsburgh has the seventh-highest passing percentage entering Week 9, they actually have run the ball 48.3% of the time in their last three games. That ranks fifth-highest among all teams.
I project a run-heavy attack tonight that will guide the Steelers away from the pass. We project Roethlisberger for 241 passing yards, four yards below this prop total. Roethlisberger has gone under this total twice in the last four games, and in a game with a 7-point spread I don’t see the 39-year old quarterback needing to throw a ton.
Justin Fields Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
Justin Fields' rushing ability is his best offensive weapon. In this last three games, Fields has tallied rushing totals of 43, 38, and 103 yards. In each of those games, Fields has also failed to reach 185 passing yards.
Chicago now faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Steelers have allowed just 661 total running back rushing yards in seven games.
They enter Monday Night's game as a 7-point favorite, which means the market expects a comfortable Steelers win. Fields rushing ability is only enhanced by negative game script, and his per-game carry totals have risen in three straight games.
This total is a full four yards lower than most books, that have set Fields' rushing total at 37.5 yards. We project Fields for 40 rushing yards on our Player Prop Tool, a full 16.3% higher than this total. Sean Koerner rated this prop a 6 out of 10 with the assumed line at 37.5 yards.
Najee Harris Over 76.5 Rushing Yards
As an extension of the rationale for Roethlisberger’s under passing total, I am betting the over on Najee Harris’s rushing total of 76.5 yards. Harris ranks fourth among all running backs in carries (128), and has increased his per-game carry total in four straight contests. He has averaged 24 carries the past three weeks, averaging 98 rushing yards per game.
The Bears are ninth-worst in run defense DVOA and will be without All-Pro linebacker Khalil Mack for a second-straight game with a foot injury. We project Harris for 82 rushing yards, a full 5.5 yards above this total.
