Merry Christmas and happy holidays, everyone. I'll be watching the NFL doubleheader tomorrow around my family and hope everyone can enjoy the day.
I have a prop for each game, one over backing a bounce-back performance in Chiefs vs. Steelers and an under for a key playmaker on the Houston side of Ravens vs. Texans.
Let's get right into them.
NFL Player Props: Noah Gray & Joe Mixon
Noah Gray is coming off a dud last week against the Texans, against whom he had one reception for 10 yards. Gray only ran a route on 41% of routes, which is a bit lower than usual. I think it had to do with the fact that he landed awkwardly on his back and missed a handful of plays.
Gray isn't dealing with any injuries, so I expect his routes run rate will go back toward 50% against the Steelers since that's normally about where it is.
The Steelers have allowed 21 tight ends to clear this number in 15 games this season. They've also been dealing with a handful of injuries to their secondary that led to some breakdowns in coverage. Gray would be the kind of player to benefit from those this week.
I'm projecting Gray for closer to 18.5 receiving yards on Christmas
Joe Mixon continues to dominate the rushing load for the Texans, but this is a spot that they could be forced into a more pass-heavy game script than usual.
I'm projecting the Texans to trail at a 26% higher rate than their season average here as 5.5-point underdogs. The Texans pass above the league-average rate on second-and-short and third-and-short situations, which hurts Mixon's upside.
Also, as we've covered a lot this season if you've read along, this is a Ravens pass-funnel defense that the Texans are facing.
I'm projecting Mixon for closer to 16.5 rush attempts.
