After a clean sweep on tight end props in the Divisional Round with Isaiah Likely, Sam LaPorta and Dalton Schultz, I'm returning to the well with two more tight end targets — Dallas Goedert and Noah Gray — for both NFL Conference Championship Games. I also have a rushing prop for Xavier Worthy.
Check out my three NFL player prop picks for Championship Sunday below.
Commanders vs. Eagles Player Props
Dallas Goedert Over 3.5 Receptions (-140)
The Commanders' raw defensive numbers against opposing tight ends aren't terrible (four catches and 39 yards allowed per game), but they don't paint the whole picture.
Washington benefited from facing a handful of backup quarterbacks and tight ends over the season. For example, the Commanders didn't have to face Dallas Goedert in one matchup against the Eagles, Trey McBride against the Cardinals, or Jake Ferguson against the Cowboys. David Njoku also suffered an in-game injury when they faced the Browns.
Additionally, Washington faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses. After adjusting for opponent, the Commanders rank 26th at defending tight ends, per DVOA. They also ranked in the bottom three in defending the second level and over the middle of the field.
Goedert could take full advantage, just as LaPorta did last week with six catches on seven targets for 51 yards and a touchdown. If Goff hadn't forced a few throws down the field and instead just found LaPorta wide open underneath, he would've had an even bigger day at the office.
Since coming back from injury, Goedert has looked like a different player. Over his past six games, he has averaged four catches on five targets for 45.5 yards, including eight receptions (on 10 targets) for 103 yards this postseason despite a screen for a significant gain getting called back for an illegal man downfield.
Goedert has also shown up in every postseason game since his second year in the league, which was his first time starting most of Philadelphia's games. In eight playoff games since 2019, he has averaged 5.1 catches on 6.8 targets for 53.8 yards and three touchdowns. His median receptions and yards over that stretch were six for 57, with at least four catches in all eight and 47 yards or more in six of eight.
Lastly, Jalen Hurts may not be 100% due to a knee injury he suffered last week, which means his league-high scramble rate may decline in addition to his designed run usage. Washington also likes to blitz, so the quick passing game may be more in play.
I also don't think A.J. Brown is fully healthy, so he may be used as more of a decoy once again after only coming down with three catches for 24 yards in the first two playoff games despite favorable cornerback matchups.
I like Goedert to go over 3.5 receptions the most, but I also played the over on receiving yards and will likely sprinkle on him to score a touchdown as well.
Bills vs. Chiefs Player Props
Noah Gray Over 1.5 Receptions (-142)
It's the postseason, which means all eyes will be on Travis Kelce on the field and in the prop market.
I think his prop numbers are too high, but I'm not betting against Playoff Kelce, who has caught at least five passes and cleared 70 receiving yards in a remarkable 14 straight postseason games.
However, the Bills are fully aware of Playoff Kelce, so I'm sure he will have their full attention leading up to and during the AFC Championship.
Will it be enough to slow him down? Probably not, but it could open up some opportunities for Noah Gray in the middle of the field, where the Bills have struggled to defend all season (second-worst in the league).
In their regular-season meeting, Kelce only had two catches on four targets, while Gray had four catches for 23 yards, including a pair of touchdowns.
Therefore, I will indirectly fade the inflated Kelce number by betting on Gray, whose prop numbers are deflated.
Over his past five postseason games, Gray has 11 receptions on 14 targets for 79 yards for a single-game average of 2.2 catches for 15.8 yards. He's cleared this yardage mark (and 1.5 catches) in four of those five games.
Additionally, with a small spread, it's not as likely the Chiefs will hold a comfortable lead where they can go run heavy and bleed the clock late, taking pass-catching opportunities away from Gray.
I anticipate Kansas City will go more pass heavy against a shorthanded Bills secondary that struggles to defend the middle of the field behind underwhelming safety and linebacker play in coverage.
I also played Gray to go over 1.5 receptions, but I prefer the receiving yards up to 13.5, assuming there's about a 35% chance he clears that number on just one reception.
Editor's Note: Gray's receiving yards have steamed past the 13.5-yard max threshold as of Saturday night.
Xavier Worthy Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
I'm targeting Worthy in the rushing yards market.
It seems the Chiefs are again concentrating their target share in the postseason, with Worthy being one of the primary beneficiaries. They want to get him the ball.
Last week, Worthy had a rushing attempt that got sniffed out by the Texans for a loss of eight yards, but I don't see any reason why Kansas City won't look to get him involved in the running game again.
From an average perspective, that's all it would likely take to clear over 2.5 rushing yards, which he did in 11 of his 16 regular-season contests (excluding Week 18).
In those 16 games, he carried the ball 20 times for 104 yards (an average of 5.2 yards per rush), including one attempt of seven yards against Buffalo back in mid-November.
Based on Andy Reid's history in playoff games, I'm reasonably confident someone other than Mahomes or the running backs will get a rushing attempt. Before this season, the Chiefs had played 20 playoff games since 2016. A pass-catcher rushed the ball in 19 of those, including at least one attempt in 17 straight since the 2018 AFC Championship (18 including last week). Worthy would be the most likely candidate to get that almost inevitable carry in this game.
If we look at the raw totals, those pass catchers totaled 34 rushing attempts across 20 games for 241 yards. That's a single-game average of 1.7 attempts for a hair over 12 yards. In total, 19 pass catchers have run for at least three yards across those 20 games, with at least one doing it in 16 of 20.
There's a decent chance Worthy breaks one off with ease against a Bills defense that has been prone to explosive runs. I also wouldn't be shocked if he got more than one carry, which a pass catcher has done in seven of those 20 games, with Tyreek Hill even getting three attempts on two separate occasions.
Overall, Kansas City has attempted more than one rush with a pass catcher in over half (11) of those playoff games.
