We have you covered with 6 NFL player prop picks for the Week 16 Sunday slate of games.
Our experts have picks for 5 games, including 2 for Vikings vs. Seahawks. We have a rushing prop, a receiving prop and 4 anytime touchdown scorers for Sunday.
Let's dig into our NFL props for this week's Sunday slate.
NFL Picks: Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our NFL staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Titans vs. Colts
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Anytime Touchdown (+375)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine hasn't scored in the past two games, but with Mason Rudolph at the helm, this is a good spot for Westbrook-Ikhine.
Westbrook-Ikhine has scored in all three games that Rudolph has started and has gotten a minimum of four targets in each of those games. While Westbrook-Ikhine's touchdown regression has been evident in the past few weeks, we are still getting +375 odds on a guy who has scored eight touchdowns in 14 games this season. He's the clear No. 2 option in this offense and is second in red-zone targets on the team. I have the true odds of him scoring at around +300, making this a great bet.
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Pick: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Anytime Touchdown (+375)
Cardinals vs. Panthers
Trey McBride
Anytime Touchdown (+125)
This is the week. It has to be the week. In Week 15, Trey McBride set the NFL record for the most receptions in a season without catching a touchdown. Arizona did everything it could to get him in the end zone against New England, including a shovel pass on the 1-yard line that went for 0 yards. McBride's touchdown drought is comical at this point.
Carolina has allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season (10, or 11 if you count Taysom Hill as a tight end). It's not like the Panthers have faced all the studs either. In fact, it's been the opposite. Foster Moreau has scored twice against Carolina. Noah Gray had a two-touchdown game. Grant Calcaterra found the end zone in Week 14. Carolina has also given up touchdowns to this superstar group of tight ends: Zach Ertz, Ben Sinnott, Nate Adkins and Adam Trautman.
McBride's role has been virtually unmatched at the position, outside of maybe Brock Bowers after the Davante Adams trade. McBride leads Arizona in targets, receptions and receiving yards. He paces the tight end position in target share, and it's not like all of his production comes between the 20s. McBride's 16 red-zone targets are tied for second among tight ends, behind only Travis Kelce. His target share inside the 20 shoots up to a massive 30.6%, dwarfing Marvin Harrison Jr. (17.6%) and the other Arizona pass catchers.
It's honestly impressive that McBride hasn't scored yet given his usage and production. The streak will end in Week 16.
Pick: Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+125)
Browns vs. Bengals
Jerome Ford
Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-113)
This is a great find by the Prop Model. Nick Chubb is done for the season, which means we're likely looking at a backfield by committee. We've already seen this situation this season, and it was a muddled mess.
Chubb missed the first six games of the season as he recovered from offseason ACL surgery. Jerome Ford led Cleveland's running backs in snaps through the first five weeks before getting injured early in Week 6.
However, he certainly didn't dominate the carries. In Weeks 1-5, Ford averaged 9.6 carries per game and handled just 59% of Cleveland's running back carries. Chubb was at 66% once he came back, despite only playing more than 36% of the snaps in two games. I'm expecting much more of an even split now that Chubb is out of the picture. D'Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong Jr. should mix in plenty.
Cleveland also never runs the ball. The Browns are last in rush rate this season and it's not just a game-script thing as the Browns have the third-lowest neutral rush rate. Also, they're touchdown underdogs on the road with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, so it's hard to see them playing with a lead. Ford probably needs 20+ team rush attempts to hit 13 carries, and I'm just not seeing a path to that type of volume.
Pick: Jerome Ford Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-113)
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Jordan Addison
Anytime Touchdown (+190)
I'm targeting both Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson (more below) to score a touchdown.
I like both of these receivers because the Seahawks have funneled touchdowns to receivers this season much more than running backs and tight ends.
Addison has been great this season, tallying eight touchdowns over 12 games. He's gotten high red-zone volume in recent weeks, with at least one red-zone target in each of the past five games and 11 total in that span. The Vikings are using Addison heavily and relying on him and Jefferson even more of late. This game has a tight spread and could very easily be a back-and-forth affair, making this a great spot for Addison
Pick: Jordan Addison Anytime Touchdown (+190)
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Justin Jefferson
Anytime Touchdown (+135)
After a rough patch of mid-season games, Justin Jefferson has finally come back into good form.
After amassing three touchdowns and 21 targets over the past two games, Jefferson gets a matchup vs. the Seahawks. This is a middle-of-the-road matchup for receivers, but if Jefferson is back to playing great football, these odds are far too high.
The Seahawks have given up an above-average amount of touchdowns (15) to receivers this season and have a propensity for being in high-scoring games. The game total isn't high, but even with the Vikings at a 22.5-point implied team total, these odds are far too high for Jefferson.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+135)
Jaguars vs. Raiders
Jakobi Meyers
Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Las Vegas gets a dream matchup against Jacksonville this week. Aidan O'Connell practiced in full Friday, so I'm confident he'll return to the starting lineup this week. We're not completely dead if it ends up being Desmond Ridder again, as Jakobi Meyers still had a decent game in Week 15. However, O'Connell has been much better and his return would be huge for this offense.
Meyers and Brock Bowers are both viable. Meyers has been better lately, and the matchup suits him. Jacksonville is allowing the second-most yards per game to wide receivers. However, the Jaguars play man coverage at the second-highest rate and Bowers has better per-target numbers against man than Meyers.
Ultimately, I sided with Meyers because of alignment. Jacksonville is allowing the third-most yards per route and yards per target to receivers lined up out wide. They're middling against slot receivers, but Meyers has lined up out wide for 71% of his routes since the Davante Adams trade. Meanwhile, Bowers spends the majority of his time in the slot.
Meyers leads the team in target share since Adams was traded — piling up a ridiculous 43 targets over his past four games. Only Trey McBride and Malik Nabers have more over this stretch. Meyers has turned those targets into 28 catches for 344 yards, averaging 6.3 catches on 9.8 targets for 72.2 receiving yards in nine games since the Adams deal. That includes games with Ridder and Gardner Minshew. With O'Connell trending toward a Week 16 start, Meyers is set up for another big outing.
Pick: Jakobi Meyers Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
