NFL Week 5 wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football game between the Saints and Chiefs. Let's jump into my favorite Monday Night Football pick, where I'm looking to fade one of the hottest running backs in the league.
For as good as Alvin Kamara has been this season, there is a lot working against him tonight, at least in terms of his number of receptions.
The Chiefs allow the fewest targets per game to running backs, and last year they allowed to sixth-fewest while also allowing the second-lowest target rate to the position.
That's despite the fact that, of the 115 plays opponents have run against the Chiefs in the second half this season, 99 have come with Kansas City ahead.
Kansas City plays more man coverage than the NFL average, and since the start of the 2023 season and with Derek Carr as his quarterback, Kamara has had a reduced target rate against man coverage.
The Chiefs' defense is also No. 1 in pressure rate this year, and the Saints' interior offensive line is missing pieces. They will need added interior protection from their backs against a Chiefs pass rush led by Chris Jones.
As a result, we may see more Jamaal Williams, who PFF grades as a better pass blocker in both 2023 and so far in 2024. And when Kamara is in, we may see more pass protection from him as well compared to his normal 5% rate of snaps pass blocking.
If the Chiefs do successfully pressure Carr, he's had a significantly higher aDOT when that is the case.
The Luck Rankings also have the Saints as the significantly unlucky team, so there's a strong chance the Saints cover, and even lead late or win, putting the Saints into a more run-heavy script.
This is currently +120 at both ESPN BET and bet365, and +115 at BetMGM.
Pick: Alvin Kamara Under 4.5 Receptions (+120)
