With only three games left, I have a player prop for both the NFC and AFC Conference Championship Games.
The Super Bowl is a different animal for betting on props, and that will start this week. For now, we're on an under in the NFC game and an over for Bills vs. Chiefs.
NFL Player Prop Picks
Austin Ekeler Under 5.5 Rush Attempts (-102)
We're coming off a game that was the best-case scenario for Austin Ekeler to see rush attempts. The Commanders beat the Lions by 14 points, were in the lead most of the game and ran the ball 42 times. Even then, Ekeler only had six carries.
I'm expecting to see nearly 14 fewer rush attempts for Washington today. The Commanders only trailed for 28% of their snaps this season, which was the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL. As six-point underdogs, though, I’m projecting them to trail for around 50% of the snaps, which means we should expect Jayden Daniels to dropback at a higher rate. That would result in fewer rush attempts.
Plus, the Eagles are an extreme run-heavy team that can dominate in time of possession and lower the overall play volume of their opponent. They allowed the second-fewest plays per game during the regular season. With that, I’m only projecting the Commanders for around 28 total rush attempts here.
Ekeler’s main role in this offense is as a pass-catching back. Also, with guard Sam Cosmi out and a good Eagles defensive line, I can see them drawing up more Ekeler screen passes as an extension of the run game.
Ekeler will mix in with a rush attempt here and there, but I’m projecting him for five rush attempts here with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5.
Keon Coleman Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Bills moved on from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason and drafted Coleman in the second round. I was curious to see what sort of role they would have for him, and it has essentially been Davis' role where he’s not going to see a ton of targets, but they'll typically be downfield when he does.
Coleman's average depth of target has been a team-leading 15.5 yards downfield, and he has also been solid after the catch. Because of that, there’s a decent chance he clears this on a single catch.
This is a game where the Bills will likely need to be a bit more pass-heavy and aggressive than usual. That could lead to more looks Coleman’s way, especially if Trent McDuffie ends up on Khalil Shakir for most of the game.
I think this is a good buy-low spot on Coleman, who has been quiet in the Bills' first two playoff games. This is a spot that they'll probably want to tap into his big-play ability.
I'm projecting Coleman for closer to 26.5 with a 60% chance to clear 20.5.
Coleman leading the game in receiving yards is +2500 at DraftKings and worth a sprinkle. Also, if this line gets up to 21.5, the pivot would be moving to his longest reception over at 14.5.
