NFL Week 6 gets started tonight with a Thursday Night Football game between the 49ers and Seahawks. Let's jump into my favorite Thursday Night Football pick, where I'm looking for one of the primary pass catchers to get in the end zone.
George Kittle has played four games against the Seahawks with Brock Purdy as his quarterback, and he's thus far scored a touchdown in three of them.
There's a reason for this. The Seahawks are bad at defending tight ends. This year, Seattle has allowed the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends and the eighth-most targets per game. That's good for a 23rd DVOA rating in defense against tight ends.
This isn't new, either. The Seahawks were 24th in defensive DVOA against tight ends last year while allowing the seventh-most yards, and they were 27th in DVOA against tight ends in 2022 while allowing the most yards to the position. It's also worth noting that Pro Bowl safety Julian Love is a game-time decision tonight.
In four games this season, Kittle has accumulated 29 targets, and that's despite the fact that he missed part of one game with a rib injury and had low volume against New England when he was returning from injury and the 49ers were winning in blowout fashion. He still caught a touchdown in that game.
I'm expecting Kittle to get at least six targets tonight, and put his odds of getting in the end zone at closer to +155.
Pick: George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+175)
