NFL Week 4 gets started tonight with the Cowboys traveling to MetLife Stadium to face the Giants. Let's jump into my favorite Thursday Night Football pick, where we'll look to improve on this season's 4-0 record when betting kickers.
Last Thursday, we bet Patriots kicker Joey Slye under 1.5 extra points and the New England offense didn't even give him a single opportunity to kick one.
This week, we're going with another under on extra points for another kicker of an underdog team in Greg Joseph for the Giants, and we're rooting for the under tonight already, so this correlates well with that.
The Cowboys are allowing red zone touchdowns to opponents at an unsustainably high rate of 90% so far this season. The league average is around 55-60%, so we should see some regression there.
Additionally, the Giants go for two quite often. They've done so after 33% of their touchdowns this season, which is the second-most in the NFL, and they did so the seventh-most frequently in 2022 and 2023 under Brian Daboll.
Joseph is also a below-average kicker, so even if he gets the opportunities, there is the chance he will just miss the kick. He's at 90.3% on extra points in his career, which is about 5% lower than the league average, and that's despite playing three years with home indoor games when he was with the Vikings.
The weather is just an added potential bonus to this number tonight, with around a 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight in the Meadowlands.
I have this under projected around a coin flip, so getting significant plus money is nice value.
