A busy NFL Week 1 wraps up tonight with Jets vs. 49ers. Let's jump into my favorite Monday Night Football pick, a prop centered around a kicker.
There isn't a lot to love about tonight's game between the Jets and 49ers from a betting perspective, but the one prop I did find a little bit of value on is the over on field goals made by the 49ers' second-year kicker.
Jake Moody attempted multiple field goals in seven of the nine games he played against top-half defenses last season. That's compared to just four of the 14 games the Niners played against bottom-half defenses.
We should expect the Jets to be among the former group this season.
The 49ers also ranked just 27th last year in frequency of attempts to go for it on fourth down last year.
With Jauan Jennings banged up and Brandon Aiyuk potentially limited after coming back from a lengthy training camp holdout, I could see scenarios where the 49ers' offense stalls out against New York's good, but banged up Jets defense.
I don't see significant value in this prop, so it's more of a lean where I'd recommend half of your usual wager, but I still like our chances of seeing Moody make at least two field goals tonight.
