NFL Week 2 gets started tonight with the Bills traveling to Miami to face the Dolphins. Let's jump into my favorite Thursday Night Football pick, where we'll look to the home team's kicker.
Jason Sanders missed just one extra point last year and has missed just seven in his six-plus years in the league, so this prop has less to do with not trusting Sanders than with the situations likely to play out tonight.
Sanders has stayed under this number in four of the five meetings between Miami amd Buffalo in the Tua Tagovailoa/Mike McDaniel/Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle era.
The reason for this is likely the "take the points" theory. Buffalo's offense is so good that the Dolphins settle for field goals more frequently than normal, knowing how important it is to end a drive with some points.
In fact, against Buffalo, McDaniel has opted for a field goal when within range every time the opportunity has presented itself except: one time on 4th-and-1, and twice when the Dolphins were down by 28 points in the fourth quarter.
And if the Dolphins find themselves in the latter case tonight, they'll also be more likely to attempt a two-point conversion than settle for an extra point.
Miami also enters this game with a banged up offense, which lowers their expected efficiency to some degree and is likely to stall out drives that might have otherwise ended in a touchdown.
Finally, any potential rain could also slightly lessen the chance of a made extra point.
I'm projecting Sanders to stay under this number close to 60% of the time, and bump that up slightly above 60% if there's rain during the game.
