NFL Week 3 gets started tonight with the Patriots traveling to face the Jets. Let's jump into my favorite Thursday Night Football pick, where we'll look to improve on this season's 2-0 record when betting kickers.
The simple question when considering this prop is this: How are the Patriots going to move the ball?
My colleague Sean Koerner talked about the pressure rates in his game preview, and it's going to be so difficult on Jacoby Brissett tonight.
The Patriots have averaged 300 yards per game through two weeks, but that has come against a suspect Cincinnati defense that struggles against the run, and an overtime game against Seattle, which ranked 28th in defensive DVOA last year.
New England's offense has scored just three touchdowns in those games against two mediocre defenses, so I'd expect the Jets to give up at most one to this offense.
There's also the fact that Joey Slye is simply a below-average kicker. Not only is his field goal percentage for his career just 82.4% compared to the 85-86% average we see across the league each year, but his extra point percentage is just 88.7%, compared to a 94-96% average across the league each year.
All that said, I like the value on Slye to make under 1.5 extra points tonight against the Jets.
