We close Week 17 tonight with an NFL player prop pick for Monday Night Football.
For Lions vs. 49ers tonight, I'm betting an over on Isaac Guerendo. He should return to the lineup with his normal workload, and I'm betting on a big gain from him.
Let's break it down.
Lions vs. 49ers Player Props
Isaac Guerendo was removed from the 49ers' injury report with foot/hamstring injuries, so I’m assuming he should see his usual workload tonight.
It’s a game script where the 49ers will likely have to pass at a higher rate than usual as 3.5-point home 'dogs against the Lions, so his overall volume is a bit tricky to project. I still think this number is a bit low considering how explosive of a runner he can be.
Guerendo was the 49ers' fourth-round pick this year and is one of only five players since 2003 to earn a perfect 99 athleticism score at the combine. Two other running backs on that list include Saquon Barkley and Chris Johnson.
Guerendo already has elite speed and should only get better as a runner as he gets more reps in the NFL. He missed a ton of training camp with an injury and was only able to suit up for one preseason game, so he really hadn’t seen many in-game reps until both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason went down in Week 13.
Now, Guerendo has 73 rush attempts under his belt and I expect him to continue to improve as a runner over the final two weeks of the season.
Guerendo has run 10+ yards on 11% of his rush attempts, which ranks 27th out of 62 running backs. He’s been equally explosive on inside runs (11%) and outside runs (11%) and since becoming the 49ers' workhorse back, he has been a lot more balanced and closer to 50/50 in terms of rushing inside/outside the tackles.
I think it would be wise for him to continue that even split against a Lions defense that has allowed an NFL-high 15% explosive run rate on inside runs. Detroit is conceding a league-high 2.38 yards before contact on those runs. The Lions have also been a bit more vulnerable since LB Alex Anzalone went down in Week 11 and have allowed 0.3 more yards per rush when he’s not on the field this season.
Allowing Guerendo to get two or more yards before contact has been a recipe for disaster for opposing defenses. He has averaged 10.7 yards per attempt on runs on which he’s been given two yards before contact. That ranks second among 62 RBs, with only Barkley averaging more.
I think we see Guerendo get to flash his speed with room to run on an inside run at some point tonight. I’m projecting his median closer to 16 with around a 60% chance he clears 14.5.
