Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his favorite NFL props at PrizePicks on the Fantasy Flex Podcast each Friday with Chris Raybon.
PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator that offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Player Props Picks
Bengals QB Joe Burrow Over 265.5 Pass Yards
The Bengals face off against the Browns this week, which means Cincinnati will be up against a pass funnel defense. Cleveland is very good against the run, ranking third in the league in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA. But the Browns are weak against the pass, sitting at 25th in DVOA. The Bengals would be crazy not to lean on Burrow and his receivers here.
I would bet this to 270.5.
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott Over 69.5 Rush Yards
Elliott should have a bounce-back performance this week with Dak Prescott back under center. As 9.5-point favorites, the Cowboys should see a positive game script, which is only aided by the Broncos struggling against the run (27th in rush DVOA).
The Broncos also lost LB Alexander Johnson to the IR and traded away the glue of this defense in Von Miller. Elliott has gone over this number in four of five games where Prescott has started and the Cowboys have won. The one time he didn’t go over? He barely went under with 69 yards.
I would bet this to 72.5.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Under 78.5 Receiving Yards
Personally, I’m not panicking too much over the Chiefs and I’m still projecting Kelce as my TE1 in Week 9. However, Kansas City’s offense does seem to be changing a bit. Mahomes completed 15 passes behind the line of scrimmage last week, the most by any QB in a game since 2016.
Defense are tempting Mahomes to check down a bit more than we’re used to, which has knocked Kelce down a tad. He’s only cleared this number once in his last five games. I’m projecting him closer to 71.5 receiving yards.
I would bet this to 81.5.
Bengals WR Tee Higgins Over 4.5 Receptions
I’m projecting Joe Burrow for nearly 15 passing yards more than the market, so naturally I also have Higgins a bit higher than the market here.
His catch rate is 59% on the season — I expect some positive regression toward his expected catch rate of 65%. Of all the Bengals pass-catchers, Higgins has benefited the most against zone coverage, with his yards per route run being higher than Ja’Marr Chase against zone. The Browns run zone at the seventh-highest rate in the league, making this a great matchup for Higgins to hit the over on this prop but I wouldn't bet it any further than 4.5.
Steelers RB Najee Harris Over 76.5 Rush Yards
Harris should see a massive workload against the Bears in Monday Night Football. The Steelers are six-point home favorites, which should mean a positive game script for Pittsburgh. Harris has zero competition behind him for carries and Chicago’s run defense ranks 24th in rush DVOA.
Harris has had 23+ carries in each of the past three games and has cleared this number in all three of those games behind an offensive line that has been playing much better lately. I’m projecting Harris closer to 82 rush yards here.
I would bet this to 79.5.
