We have 3 games on Saturday in Week 17, starting with Chargers vs. Patriots.
I will have an NFL player prop pick for every game, starting with a pair of overs that hit in the first game of the day. I'll wrap things up at SoFi Stadium tonight with another tackles over.
Let's get straight into it.
NFL Player Props: Saturday Week 17
I'm taking this at 7.5, but other books are at 8.5 and that’s where this line will move. Budda Baker has cleared 8.5 53% of the time this season.
Baker is a tackle machine, but he also benefits from having a very friendly home scorekeeper in Arizona. Therefore, he covers this at a much higher rate at home (63%) than he does on the road (43%). I always keep this in mind when it comes to his props.
So, last week at Carolina was not only a road game but also a tougher matchup for safeties to rack up tackles. It’s not too surprising he finished with a season-low six last week.
Baker should bounce back here against the Rams, who have provided the 12th-most tackle opportunities on the season. The Rams' home scorekeeper is also generous dishing out assists, which should help Baker not see as much of a dropoff due to this being a road game.
I’m projecting him closer to 9.5 tackles here with a 71% chance to clear 7.5 and a 60% chance to clear 8.5. The best number on 8.5 as of publish is -114 on the over at ESPN BET, but get 7.5 if you can.
Cody Barton has cleared this 60% of the time this season, despite having a below average schedule for a linebacker to get tackles.
Barton got off to a slow start by failing to clear this in the first three games but has cleared it 75% of the time since.
The Bengals are a plus matchup for Barton, who has cleared this number four of five "plus" matchups this season. Barton tends to be more involved in passing game tackles, so a matchup against a pass-heavy team like the Bengals should help his case.
Plus, Joe Burrow’s average depth of target has been trending downward, which should allow Barton to be more involved on his completions.
Chase Brown has been running inside at a much higher rate since becoming a true workhorse back, which should help Barton be more involved on his runs. Barton will also be in on checkdowns to Brown out of the backfield, which I’m projecting about four of today.
I’m projecting Barton closer to 7.5 tackles. He’s had such a high floor lately, so I’m surprised they are floating him at this number and price. I give him a 62% chance to clear this and love that we are getting plus odds.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumbling issues continued last week as he had his sixth fumble and third lost fumble. Patriots head coach Jarod Mayo had benched him earlier in the season due to fumbling issues and hinted at the possibility this week.
I think the most likely scenario is that Mayo continues to use Stevenson as the Patriots' lead back and let him simply prove that the six fumbles so far are an anomaly, especially considering he had only fumbled four total times in his first three NFL seasons.
However, there is still a chance that Mayo tries to prove a point and we see Antonio Gibson get the start and more work as a result, giving him some nice upside.
I’m still projecting Gibson to get his normal workload but show some value on his over due to the matchup. The Chargers run defense has been a bit vulnerable as of late, especially on outside runs on which they’ve allowed the third-highest explosive run rate. That sets up well for Gibson, who rushes outside at the 13th highest rate.
Gibson should probably do so more often considering he has the third-highest rushing yards over expected per attempt among RBs (NextGenStats) on outside runs. He’s also averaging 4.4 yards after contact (on all runs), which ranks second in the league. That allows him to overcome one of the worst offensive lines in the league to average 4.5 yards a rush this season.
The Chargers have allowed the third-most yards after contact in the league, making this a matchup I think sets him up for a pretty efficient game.
I’m projecting Gibson for closer to 35.5 rush yds with around a 60% chance to clear 28.5. I’m assuming Stevenson sees his usual role here, but there is some built in upside if Stevenson has a lighter workload due to recent fumbles, or if he were to fumble again early in the game.
This is a wild prop to project, and I’m rolling the dice on his under
S Tony Jefferson has played three games in the last four weeks and racked up eight, four and seven tackles so far. His snap counts were 67%, 53%, and 100% for those three games. He also faced one of the easiest schedules over that stretch and in the eight-tackle game, he only played 67% of the snaps against the Chiefs, but the Chargers defense faced 81 plays that week.
Last week, Jefferson racked up seven tackles in a full-time role with Elijah Molden out. Not only is Molden back in the lineup here, but CB Cam Hart also returns to the lineup. I think that makes the secondary crowded enough where I’m projecting Jefferson closer to a 60-65% snap rate.
While his tackle rate has been impressive, I think it comes back down to earth a bit here against a more average opponent for tackles to safeties. I'm projecting Jefferson closer to 4.1 tackles with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5.
This is one with a wide range of outcomes, though, and it'll be clear based on his early playing time which side of this total was the correct one.
