Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite NFL prop bets throughout the season. He has a 430-326-6 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
We've included the book with the best line as of writing, but it's possible they have moved by the time you read this story.
NFL Props To Bet: Week 7
Bengals–Ravens Props
Joe Mixon Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
Bengals are 6.5-point underdogs (see real-time NFL odds here), but I'm projecting them to keep it close and cover the spread. As a result, I'm projecting Mixon for around 17 carries.
The only time Mixon failed to clear this number was in Week 5, when he was playing through an ankle injury. He appears to be fully recovered from that ankle issue.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: -135
Panthers–Giants Props
Tommy Tremble Under 13.5 Rec Yards (-115)
In the three games post-Dan Arnold trade, Tremble has gone 0/0/0, 2/12/1 and 0/0/0. Based on his underlying usage, he will stay under this number about 40% of the time.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: 12.5
Jets–Patriots Props
Ryan Griffin Over 8.5 Rec Yards (-110) & Over 1.5 Rec (+140)
I'm going back to the Ryan Griffin well after he burned me in Week 5, going 1/4/0 in his first game starting in place for Tyler Kroft. Griffin shattered his season-high in routes run% at 69%, and that underlying usage projects him for around two receptions.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 11.5 and +100
Lions–Rams Props
Jared Goff Over 0.5 INT (-135)
Goff has thrown for only four interceptions this season despite having nine turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF. I'm projecting this closer to -170.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: -150
Jamaal Williams Over 7.5 Rec Yards
Williams is a good bet for around two receptions, and his over 1.5 receptions is currently -165, so why is his yardage prop only 7.5? He can even clear this number with a single reception.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 9.5
Eagles–Raiders Props
Jalen Hurts Over 44.5 Rush Yards (-113)
I'm projecting Hurts for 10 rushes and 55 yards. Dual-threat QBs have exceeded expectations against the Raiders this season: Lamar Jackson (12/86/0) and Jacoby Brissett (7/37/1) were the only two who have started against them this season.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 47.5
Texans–Cardinals Props
James Conner Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
The Cardinals are -18.5, which sets up for a perfect James Conner game script. He's seen 64% of the rush attempts (vs. Chase Edmonds) when the Cardinals are up 7+ and sees 53% of rush attempts (vs. Chase Edmonds) in all other situations. Edmonds has been playing through a shoulder injury, so it would make sense for Arizona to give Conner extra work in what should be an easy win.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 14.5
Davis Mills Under 1.5 Pass TD (-200)
The Texans team total is 14.5 points and their total touchdowns prop is 1.5 (the under is -135). Therefore, the fair odds for this prop should be closer to -330 once you factor in the chances that the Texans score a rushing/defensive/special teams TD.
I'm not scared of the juice here.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: -240
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
