We have seven NFL player prop picks for Week 9 with some of the game's biggest names — and young stars — covered.
Commanders vs. Giants features the two most exciting rookies in the NFL, and we have a pick for both Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers. We're betting two Broncos overs in what could be a tough matchup for Denver this weekend in Baltimore, and we close the day with a pair of touchdown scorers in two huge NFC matchups: Rams vs. Seahawks and Lions vs. Packers.
Let's get into our favorite NFL picks and player props.
NFL Player Props for Week 9
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Commanders vs. Giants
Jayden Daniels
Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-110)
By Sam Farley
Every week, it seems like Jayden Daniels is showing us improvement in one area or another. He's the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year for a reason. The Giants are ranked eighth against the pass, averaging 189.4 yards allowed per game, but Daniels should have no trouble throwing Over 226.5.
It's a number that he's hit in five of the past six weeks, the exception being when he left with his rib injury. Last week he put up 326 passing yards, despite the rib injury, against a Bears' defense who have had very similar numbers to the Giants' pass defense this year.
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-110)
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Commanders vs. Giants
Malik Nabers
Over 6.5 Receptions (+110)
By Sam Farley
Getting plus money on Malik Nabers' reception total feels like value. He's had over 6.5 receptions in four of six games so far. The only exceptions were his debut, in which he still had seven targets, and his return from concussion in Week 7, in which he caught just four of his eight targets.
In the other four games, he's had double-digit targets and at least seven catches. Not to mention that when the teams met in Week 2, he had a huge 18 targets, of which he caught 10 for 127 yards and a touchdown. He's the key man in the offense and we saw an uptick in usage last week after his concussion, with seven catches on 13 targets, that'll continue.
Pick: Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Receptions (+110)
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Cowboys vs. Falcons
Drake London
Anytime TD Scorer (+116)
Drake London has been great this season, scoring in five of the last seven games, and in this game environment, we shouldn't be getting this bet at plus odds. London is a big-body receiver who is the major red-zone threat in this offense, with 12 targets this season.
The Cowboys are one of the worst defenses and the worst red-zone defense in the league this season, allowing a score on 74% of red-zone trips. The game total is high-sitting (51.5), and with the Cowboys' offense still being competent, it should be a close game. I have London at well over a 50% chance of scoring, making this a great bet.
Pick: Drake London Anytime TD Scorer (+116)
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Broncos vs. Ravens
Bo Nix
Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Bo Nix's average depth of target is 8.3 yards on average this year, 14th in the league of all passers with more than 100 attempts. We are a long way from projecting him to be late-stage Drew Brees in a dink-and-dunk manner, now pushing the ball further down the field on average than Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford, among others. Nix is clearly progressing as the season goes along, as he is coming off his season high in passing yards.
Outside of his first NFL start in Week 1 on the road in Seattle, in the other four games, he has recorded 30 or more attempts, he has passed for at least 216 yards. It's also easy to project him for an abundance of attempts here, as the Broncos are 9.5 point underdogs in Baltimore, and Denver should struggle to generate any type of ground attack.
Lastly, the Ravens have surrendered 311 passing yards per game this season, the most in the league, and rank 29th in yards per attempt allowed (8.1). Only one quarterback all season has failed to reach 265 yards passing against this defense, which happened to be Josh Allen who only attempted 29 passes.
This matchup, along with potential garbage time, is simply too good to pass up on Nix's passing total.
Pick: Bo Nix Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-110)
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Broncos vs. Ravens
Courtland Sutton
Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Despite throwing for a career-high 284 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Panthers, the betting market is not buying into Bo Nix. While the Ravens are a much better team than the Panthers, their pass defense is nearly as bad. They have been the biggest pass-funnel matchup in the NFL this season.
They are first in rushing yards allowed per game (70) and dead last in passing yards allowed per game (291). As 9.5-point underdogs on the road, we can expect a pass-heavy game script for the Broncos. It's hard to ignore Courtland Sutton's usage on the season: 22% target share, 39% air yards share, and a 30% first-read rate. He's also coming off his first 100-yard game of the season.
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Rams vs. Seahawks
Cooper Kupp
Anytime TD Scorer (+130)
At this point, we don't know what the status of Puka Nacua will be for this game, but if he isn't 100% or if he doesn't play, there is massive value on Cooper Kupp. This game has a high total (48), and with a 1-point spread, the Rams should be throwing all game long.
Kupp has two touchdowns in three games this season, and despite not even playing three full games, he leads the Rams' WRs in red-zone targets. Kupp has been one of the best WRs in the league over the last few seasons and gets a great matchup, so I'm not sure why his odds are so high, but I'm taking advantage.
Pick: Cooper Kupp Anytime TD Scorer (+130)
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Lions vs. Packers
Jahmyr Gibbs
Anytime TD Scorer (-110)
Jahmyr Gibbs continues to thrive every week, with seven touchdowns on the season and three over the past two weeks. The spot is great, with a high game total and a close spread (3 points). The Lions have shown every week that they are willing to hammer the ball on the ground over and over again, and with the projected game script, Gibbs should be in for a big workload.
While David Montgomery is viewed as the guy in the red zone in this offense, both RBs have the same amount of red-zone touches, and Gibbs has six targets to Montgomery's one. While Montgomery is generally used closer to the goal line, Gibbs is still heavily involved and always has a chance to break off a big run at any time. I have Gibbs at close to a 60% chance of scoring, making this a great bet.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD Scorer (-110)
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