Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies for the Anytime Touchdown market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for NFL Week 5.
Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Previews
Jaguars vs. Bills
The Jaguars may have gotten off easy last week with Desmond Ridder throwing up all over himself with the Falcons, but the Bills aren’t the Falcons. Buffalo’s pass-rush is coming across the pond and the playmakers at wide receiver will be apparent from the jump.
That’s why if it’s not broken, don’t fix it and keep going with Bills WR Gabe Davis. With touchdowns in three straight games, Josh Allen continues to look for him in the end zone when Stefon Diggs is doubled. And, Davis has done this on only two red-zone targets. He’s their guy for the deep shots.
Same thing for the Jaguars. They’re going to need to throw often to keep up with the Bills, who just lost their top cornerback in Tre’Davious White. That’s why you need to go back to Jags WR Calvin Ridley and let him cook.
Verdict: Bet Gabe Davis at +200 and Calvin Ridley at +160.
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Texans vs. Falcons
The C.J. Stroud show is alive and well in Houston. He’s been slinging it all over the field, but this Falcons team is sneaky good when defending wide receivers. Yes, they’ve given up four TDs to the position — but those opportunities have been few and far between for opposing quarterbacks trying to target their WR1. That’s why I’d go the Texans tight end position with someone like Dalton Schultz. He finally caught a TD last week and will need to be utilized more like how the Lions used Sam LaPorta in Week 3 (eight catches, 11 targets, one TD).
As long as Desmond Ridder is at QB for the Falcons, none of the pass-catchers offer proper value to score. I’d sprinkle a longshot like Mack Hollins and pray he can make a play instead of banking on the likes of TEs Kyle Pitts or Jonnu Smith.
Verdict: Bet Dalton Schultz TD and sprinkle Mack Hollins for Atlanta.
Panthers vs. Lions
Detroit is just going to pick this team apart.
There’s a big difference between “Home” Jared Goff and “Road” Jared Goff. Since the start of the 2022 season, Goff has thrown 27 touchdowns in 11 home games as opposed to only nine touchdowns in nine road games. The offense picks up major steam at home, so Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds are solid looks in this spot along with a potential longshot in Jameson Williams, who’s expected to make his season debut.
Outside of TE Hayden Hurst or maybe WR Adam Thielen, I want no part of any Panthers TD scorers.
Verdict: Bet Lions WR TDs and Hurst TD with the Panthers if you like good odds with a sprinkle of pain.
Titans vs. Colts
What do the Titans do well? Run the ball (sometimes). What do the Colts do well? Run the ball (sometimes). What is both teams' defensive strength? Limiting the run.
This means if you’re going to make an ATD pick for this matchup, you need to bank on Ryan Tannehill and Anthony Richardson to make plays for you passing the ball. So far, that has been a recipe for disaster.
This game is a pass for me.
Verdict: Hard pass.
Giants vs. Dolphins
Look, I get the Giants are having the season from hell (no complaints, btw) but there’s a bit of overcorrection on New York pass-catchers. WRs like Isaiah Hodgins and Wan'Dale Robinson are each at +500 or more to score a TD, which is absurd. This Dolphins defense just gave up four passing touchdowns last week to the Bills and even still let up 20 to the Broncos in a game where they scored 70 points. Miami may have a top offense but its defense is certainly exploitable.
The Giants play one of the top man-coverage rates in the NFL along with a high blitz rate. This is a bad strategy against the Dolphins who thrive on quick passes and letting their playmakers do the heavy lifting. The issue is nobody wants to bet on Tyreek Hill at -150 to score. Instead, I offer a longshot opportunity in fullback Alec Ingold. He’s +2000 to score, plays the second-most snaps for all FBs behind Kyle Juszczyk. Mike McDaniel is a Kyle Shanahan disciple who has Juice heavily involved in the offense. It’s obviously a longshot so bet accordingly and only wager what you’re comfortable with.
Verdict: Bet Isaiah Hodgins and Wandale Robinson for NYG. Sprinkle on Alec Ingold for MIA.
Saints vs. Patriots
I’ve tried. Every week, I go into a Saints game and think, “This is the week where Derek Carr puts it together in the red zone” and I continue to be wrong. I can’t do it anymore and Chris Olave and Michael Thomas should protest. On a serious note, if I’m picking a WR here, it’s either Olave at +215 or WR3 Rashid Shaheed at +390 — especially as Shaheed has shown he can score on deep throws or in the return game.
For Patriots TD scorers, I’m out as long as Mac Jones is the quarterback. I’d maybe consider their D/ST TD prop at +750 but now that defensive end Matt Judon is out, that option seems just as bleak as the offense.
Verdict: Bet Chris Olave +215 or Rashid Shaheed +390.
Ravens vs. Steelers
This could get ugly quick for the Steelers. QB Mitch Trubisky is on tap for Pittsburgh and he looked awful last year when the Steelers hosted Baltimore — I’ll be shocked if he has more than one TD pass. Especially with Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey and safety Marcus Williams expected back this week. Hard pass on Steelers touchdowns.
I’d also maybe consider QB Lamar Jackson but this is the spot where you want Gus “Bus” Edwards at +160. The Steelers defense hasn’t really stopped anyone on the ground yet this season and Edwards is the lead back.
Verdict: Bet Gus Edwards TD at +160.
Bengals vs. Cardinals
This game really does put you in a predicament. Bet on the Bengals offense with how awful Joe Burrow has looked this season OR bank on a Cardinals offense clearly punching above its weight against a defense that’s only allowed five combined TDs to running backs and wide receivers through four games. This means we may need to consider some longshots.
With the Bengals, I’d go with WR Trenton Irwin at +500. He caught four TDs last year and saw an increase in snaps after Tee Higgins left with a rib injury in Week 4. If Higgins is limited or is ruled out, Irwin would benefit significantly.
This might also be the game Cardinals TE Zach Ertz gets back into the end zone. He saw 10 targets and more than 70% of snaps in Week 4. The Bengals have allowed three TDs to TEs this year and are in the bottom 10 in receptions to the position. With the pressure they can cause on the defensive line, QB Josh Dobbs may have to look for his safety blanket over the middle
Verdict: Bet Zach Ertz at +350 and sprinkle on longshots like Trenton Irwin +500.
Eagles vs. Rams
I don’t like the idea of passing on WR Cooper Kupp when he’s plus odds for a touchdown but there’s a LOT of question marks about this offense. Most notably, the health of QB Matthew Stafford. He’s dealing with a hip injury and now has the Eagles defensive line likely breathing down his neck.
This game could look a lot like Rams-Bengals in Week 3 when Cincy just dominated the line of scrimmage. Still, if Stafford is out there, all Rams pass-catchers are in play just based on sheer passing volume. Especially TE Tyler Higbee since the Eagles have already allowed three TDs to TEs this season, 31st in the NFL.
Verdict: Go with the “Tight End” Special with Tyler Higbee and Dallas Goedert, both over +200.
Jets vs. Broncos
This one is gross. I’m trying to be a good sport and come up with touchdown angles for every game but would you really want to trust your money with a Zach Wilson-led offense? If you said, “yes,” please also consider donating to charity with the holidays coming up. Also, the value on top guys like Garrett Wilson or Allen Lazard for the Jets is skewed because they're facing a Broncos defense that allowed 98 points in the last two games. The Jets are not even close to the same threat.
The other annoying part about this game is all the good longshots for the Broncos seem to have been bled dry. RB Jaleel McLaughlin, WR Marvin Mims and WR Brandon Johnson have all already scored this season with odds above +1000. Now, each of them top out at +400. I’d just steer clear of this one.
Verdict: Hard pass.
Chiefs vs. Vikings
This is the one. This is the game where you find multiple TD scorers you like down the odds board. Sure, you can always do a tidy SGP with Travis Kelce and Justin Jefferson for around +200 but — for as “safe” as that may feel — you’d be better served just using those as parlay pieces for secondary games. Instead, let’s take a look at some WRs down the depth chart like Vikings K.J. Osborn and Chiefs Rashee Rice.
Osborn has been one of the most underrated ATD scorer bets as he has 14 touchdowns in 38 games and has never closed with odds below +225 in any game he’s started. He’s playing all two-receiver sets, which is why he’s at over 90% of snaps this season. In a matchup where the Vikings will likely need to put up 30 points to be competitive, Osborn is at a great value, especially if the Chiefs do everything in their power to stop Justin Jefferson.
Rashee Rice may be a rookie but he’s already proven early that he can be depended on in the red zone. He’s second on the Chiefs in targets and the Vikings’ secondary has been generous to WR this season, ranking bottom-five in catches, yards and touchdowns allowed to the position.
Verdict: Bet K.J. Osborn +330 and Rashee Rice +275.
Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Best Bets
Kamara looked fresh in his return in Week 4 and saw 75% of snaps against the Bucs. Part of this was due to the trailing game script, but still, Kamara had 14 targets — two of which were in the red zone.
His return could be a huge boost for Derek Carr, who's been awful this year in scoring territory. The Saints are last in red-zone TD% at 33%. Positive regression should be coming.
The Patriots defense is a huge drop-off compared to the Buccaneers'. New England is also now missing its two best defenders in Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon.
If "Dump-off Derek" is in the red zone, Kamara should get multiple opportunities to score.
When New Orleans played New England in 2021, Kamara was -130 for an Anytime TD.
Osborn, who’s scored in two of four games this year, is playing in all two-receiver sets and has played over 90% of snaps.
The Chiefs’ run defense could force the Vikings to run more 11-personnel, which could mean less 3-WR sets for Jordan Addison.
Already one of the most pass-happy teams in the league, Minnesota is likely to be in a trailing game script against the Chiefs. And with stoping Justin Jefferson likely to be the point of emphasis for the Chiefs, I like Osborn to cash in this spot.
Osborn has been one of the most underrated Anytime TD scorer bets – he has 14 touchdowns in 38 games and has never closed with odds below +225 in any game he’s started.
Behind only Kyle Juszczyk of the 49ers, Ingold plays the second-most snaps of all fullbacks in the league. Ingold scored twice last year, logging both a rushing and receiving touchdown.
Mike McDaniel is a Shanahan disciple and Ingold is basically his Miami version of “Juice.”
The Giants, however, blitz a lot. This likely means that Ingold could be used even more to help block. They also play a lot of man coverage, which means Ingold would likely be lined up with a linebacker if he goes for a route.
This play is all about the odds and the matchup.
Tremble, who scored three touchdowns last year, is playing nearly 40% of snaps. The Lions have been notoriously bad against tight ends since the start of last year, finishing last in catches and yards allowed to the position.
Further fueling this bet is that Detroit’s best slot corner, Brian Brian, is out. I think there will be a long-shot TD scorer for the Panthers out of the slot, either Tremble or Laviska Shenault.
Tremble’s odds may be too rich for some. If you're not up for it, take a look at Hayden Hurst (+400).
