Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market.
Each week, I’ll go through every NFL game on the Sunday afternoon slate to identify the players you should consider betting in the ATD market and whether the odds are worth the investment.
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market for my NFL predictions in Week 5.
NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Odds are as of Friday night.
| Picks |
|---|
| Dolphins vs. Patriots |
| Panthers vs. Bears |
| Colts vs. Jaguars |
| Bills vs. Texans |
| Ravens vs. Bengals |
| Browns vs. Commanders |
| Raiders vs. Broncos |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers |
| Giants vs. Seahawks |
| Packers vs. Rams |
Earlier in the week, one sportsbook had Dolphins star Tyreek Hill’s odds as high as +330. I've tracked his ATD odds for every game since 2020 and even in games without QB Tua Tagovailoa, he's never had TD odds over +190. That's how poorly oddsmakers think of Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill currently has +330 Anytime TD Odds at DK.
I've tracked his ATD odds for every game since 2020. Even in games without QB Tua Tagovailoa, he's never had TD odds over +190.
That's how poorly oddsmakers think of Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson.
— Gilles Gallant (@GDAWG5000) October 2, 2024
After reminding them of the discrepancy, his odds have since “plummeted” to +180, which is around where they should be. The only reason why you might want to go back to Hill is he’s still one of the few players that can score from anywhere on the field. That being said, as long as Huntley is the QB, he gets the “Malik Willis Treatment." Sprinkle on a Huntley rushing touchdown and get out of the way. Huntley hasn’t reached 200 passing yards in his last nine NFL starts. Why would you now want to then bank on someone to catch it?
Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett is expected to get another start, which means a lot of checkdowns, low aDOT throws and a lot of RB Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s already down to -110 and while I expect him to get usage in the red zone, are we even sure the Patriots can get there? Their offensive line is allowing the most pressure in the NFL and they just lost their starting center in David Andrews for the season.
If you want to talk yourself into someone like TE Hunter Henry at +450, that’s fine. He’s still playing the majority of snaps and has seen a red-zone target in three of four games, but don’t be shocked if the Pats score a maximum of two touchdowns. Or you get vultured like in Week 4 by TE2 Austin Hooper (+900).
Verdict: Sprinkle on Tyler Huntley +333 | Sprinkle On Hunter Henry at +450
With QB Andy Dalton, all boats are floating in the passing game now. Panthers WR1 Diontae Johnson (+200) looks reborn with 27 targets in two games and two touchdowns. The Bears secondary has been pretty solid this year and should be able to restrict some of the new-found success from the Panthers passing attack ,but they're not unbeatable.
That’s why I like rookie WR Xavier Legette to get another TD in this matchup. He’s starting now with WR Adam Thielen out and saw 10 targets from Dalton with a TD. If Johnson moves closer to +225, we go back to him — but at +300, Legette is our guy.
If the Bears passing game is finally going to emerge this season, this is a top-three matchup for that to happen. The Panthers give up points on all phases, ranking in the bottom three in touchdowns to WRs and RBs.
WR DJ Moore was able to finally get on the board last week, but my sights are set on WR Keenan Allen at +245. He came back from his heel injury last week and has historically crushed Zone Coverage, which the Panthers play at a top-10 rate. You can’t really go wrong with any Bears this week, so if you prefer Rome Odunze (+320) or Moore (+175), that’s cool, but I’m riding with Allen for Week 5.
Verdict: Xavier Legette +300 | Keenan Allen +245
The Colts offense is tough because for betting touchdowns you desperately want QB Joe Flacco in there. He will at least look for WRs more, isn’t a threat to run and has much better presence in the pocket. Let’s just go back with Josh Downs, who I bet last week. He was tied for the team lead in targets and does pretty well vs. Man Coverage, which the Jaguars play at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Maybe it’s just me, but I’m getting pretty sick of Jaguars RB Travis Etienne. He has minus odds to score again in Week 5 but when you watch him, it’s clear that RB2 Tank Bigsby is the more explosive back.
Etienne has 12 red-zone carries so far this season but even the coaching staff seems to be taking notice of Bigsby because he saw two red-zone carries in Week 4 and had 90 yards rushing on just seven carries. He’s +400 to score and that’s just too big of a jump between him and Etienne that we have to take him in this spot. The Colts are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game this year and just came off a game where they allowed QB Justin Fields to run in two touchdowns.
Verdict: Josh Downs +350 | Tank Bigsby +400
I’m not sure what to make of the Bills offense. They kind of got exposed last week against the Ravens and have become quite predictable with their running attack. QB Josh Allen is only averaging 25 pass attempts per game, which would be his lowest mark since 2019 if the season ended today. You could go chalk and take Allen to score at +120 or even nibble on James Cook at +105.
But with WR Khalil Shakir out, we should take a stab on WR Curtis Samuel at +390. Out of all the Bills wide receivers, Samuel is the only one who could kind of replicate Shakir’s role. Through four games, he has the most slot reps for Bills wide receivers behind Shakir despite ranking last in total snaps played. Even last year with Washington, he led the Commanders in snaps in the slot at a 70.7% rate.
The Bills defense could be in trouble in this matchup. Edge rusher Von Miller has been suspended and the injuries are piling up in the secondary with both Taron Johnson and Taylor Rapp expected out. Naturally, everyone will be looking to Texans WR2 Stefon Diggs in a “revenge game” spot, but WR3 Tank Dell is who we need to bet. I know I’ve recommended him a lot this season and he hasn’t scored, but this could be a perfect matchup for him because he’s historically crushed Zone Coverage and the Bills run it at a top-10 rate.
Verdict: Curtis Samuel +390 | Tank Dell +250
If Ravens RB Derrick Henry is back to form, I’m not sure the odds for Ravens pass-catchers can be high enough. In the last two games, Lamar Jackson has 33 pass attempts total. That’s because Henry beheaded both the Bills and Cowboys defenses before the end of the first half. That’s just not nearly enough pass attempts to go around to allow fair odds for touchdowns.
The Bengals' biggest issue this season? Stopping the run. They’ve allowed four rushing TDs in just the last two games and have injuries across the board on their defensive line. Unless you want to take a crack on RB2 Justice Hill again at +330, avoid Ravens TD props this week.
Are we sure the Bengals' pass game is back? Sure, they’ve put up some touchdowns on defenses like the Commanders and Panthers, but it’s hard to tell if that’s sustainable when facing a tougher opponent like the Ravens. Still, the 50.5 total screams touchdowns, which means guys like Derrick Henry (-225), Ja’Marr Chase (+100) and even Lamar Jackson (+160) have steamed odds.
The one Bengals player who should still be in play is WR2 Tee Higgins at +210. He’s slowly coming back to form and while he didn’t find the end zone, he did lead the team in targets and receptions in Week 4. Higgins over +200 is decent value in the divisional matchup.
Verdict: Justice Hill +330 | Tee Higgins +210
This should be a dream matchup for QB Deshaun Watson and the Browns passing game. The Commanders are bottom-five in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns to WR (10) this season and it’s not likely going to get better anytime soon.
So, why am I hesitant to back WR Amari Cooper in this spot? Doesn’t it seem a bit odd that he has +230 odds to score this week when Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. only had +110 odds against the same defense? It’s because oddsmakers don’t trust Watson to complete throws and execute in the red-zone. I’m not against taking Cooper here, but if oddsmakers don’t trust Watson, should you?
I do think Watson can be counted on with his legs. He had eight carries in Week 4 and scored a TD in Week 2 vs the Jaguars. If the Browns get to the red zone and can’t punch it in because Watson’s accuracy continues to fail him, we may as well bank on him to run for it instead at +400.
The Terry McLaurin rocket ship is on its way to the moon. Want to know why? Week 4 was only the second time since his rookie season in 2019 that he caught a touchdown in consecutive weeks. That’s how rough the QB situation had been in Washington for the majority of his career.
But with Jayden Daniels there now, the WR1 with the Commanders is who we need to keep riding with. He’s led this team in targets in three straight games and is facing a Browns team that still deploys a top-three Man Coverage rate in the NFL. Well, McLaurin leads the Commanders in a lot of key receiver metrics vs. Man like yards per route run, aDOT and target share. At +200, we need to keep riding the hot hand.
Verdict: Deshaun Watson +400 | Terry McLaurin +200
The total for this game is at 35.5 and it still might not be low enough. Both starting quarterbacks in Gardner Minshew and Bo Nix have combined for four total passing touchdowns in eight games played. That is Zach Wilson territory right there. With the low total and low output by quarterbacks, pass-catchers likely need to have TD odds above +300, and the majority of the top names like WR Courtland Sutton, WR Jakobi Meyers and TE Brock Bowers are between the +225 to +275 range.
I say we go dumpster diving and take a look at a long shot like Raiders TE2 Harrison Bryant at +900. In his first four years in Cleveland, he would usually be a sneaky red-zone target for Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson while typically having odds over +1000 when he scored because he was playing behind TE David Njoku. This week, he gets elevated to TE2 again because TE3 Michael Mayer is on personal leave like last game. Last week against the Browns, he ended up playing 76% of snaps and saw two targets. It’s not much but worth a sprinkle in a game in which touchdowns will be few and far between.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Harrison Bryant +900
One of the higher totals of the week (49.5), this game isn’t very inviting for anytime touchdown scorers. With the Cardinals defense hemorrhaging points (26.5 points per game allowed), sportsbooks have made almost every 49ers player at heavily reduced odds.
Someone like RB Jordan Mason is the biggest favorite of the weekend at -200 while even someone like WR Deebo Samuel is at minus odds. This makes it very difficult to find value for Niners when they have four players at +130 or lower. When matchups like this come around, tip your cap, don’t force it and move onto another game.
For the Cardinals, the obvious choice should be WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s exploded over the last three weeks with four touchdowns, but the Niners defense hasn’t really allowed much to WR1 this year. They rank sixth in defensive DVOA vs. WR1 and only WR1 Justin Jefferson has scored a touchdown on them through four games.
With RB James Conner at -105 to score, I say we look at QB Kyler Murray to finally get on the board this season instead. Murray hasn’t really had to run much in the red zone because when they get there, Connor has typically closed the deal. But he’s still got that jitterbug in him with carries over 20+ yards in three of four games. If the Niners stop Conner in the red zone, would it shock you to see Murray take off on third down and beat the linebackers to the end zone? If it wouldn’t, then you know what to do.
Verdict: Kyler Murray +245
Week 4 was a bit of a realization that the Seahawks' pass defense might be a bit overrated. When you face offenses led by Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson, of course your pass defense metrics are going to look great.
The Lions carved them up for 42 points and while I don’t expect the Giants to match that output, I do think you can’t go wrong with WR Wan’Dale Robinson again at +270, especially with WR Malik Nabers out. He’s had seven red-zone targets in four games with five of those coming inside the 10-yard line. I know he has a low aDOT (5.1) and Daniel Jones is the quarterback, but anything over +250, we have to keep going back to him. It’s too much volume to ignore.
With the Giants playing Man Coverage at a top-10 rate this season, we go right back to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at +210. He currently leads the Seahawks in targets and target share when facing Man defenses and has outproduced WR Tyler Lockett (+240) at almost every turn while playing more snaps. The Giants also rank 24th in defensive DVOA vs. the pass while also allowing five TDs to WRs so far.
Verdict: Wan’Dale Robinson +270 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba +210
The Packers are starting to remind me of the Steelers in the 2010s when it comes to how they continue to churn out quality wide receivers. WR Jayden Reed (+125) might be one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL while others like Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have flashes of dominance in certain matchups.
The one wide receiver who seems to thrive each time when given an opportunity has been Dontayvion Wicks (+210), and I like him to score again in Week 5. He saw four red-zone targets in Week 4 and played 76% of snaps with Watson out in Week 5. I fully expect head coach Matt LaFleur to dial something up for “Don Wick.”
The Rams' pass defense has been borderline awful for the majority of the season. They rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, having given up eight passing touchdowns. I’d like to think that’s the only edge but even the Rams' run defense is leaky, with opponents averaging over five yards per carry with five rushing touchdowns allowed. All Packers TD bets are in play in this one.
We know Rams QB Matt Stafford will make some amazing throws and be able to at least move the chains, but no player on this roster is worth betting on under +300 except for RB Kyren Williams (-185). WRs Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington all are priced between +220 to +300, which makes it difficult to pinpoint the value.
If you want to take a flier on TE Colby Parkinson at +350, that would be decent since the Packers have allowed two TDs to tight ends this season and you at least know he’ll be on the field for at least 85% of snaps.
Verdict: Dontayvion Wicks +210 | Colby Parkinson +375
