Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown market.
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Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Previews
Last week, I got up early, had all my work done and thoroughly enjoyed Dolphins vs. Chiefs in Germany. Sadly, it was a disaster for touchdown betting.
Now, both of these offenses are a mess and both defenses seem to come up big when you least expect it. The Pats are a top-five team according to DVOA against WR1 and 26th in DVOA to WR2. That’s why we took Commanders WR2 Jahan Dotson last week, who did score.
With Josh Downs out, next man up for the Colts is Alec Pierce at +350 and Isaiah McKenzie at +600.
Verdict: Sleep in or bet Alec Pierce +350 (DraftKings) if you have to bet on this game
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As much as I’m looking forward to his matchup, the TD odds don’t reflect how these defenses have performed this season. For example, both teams rank in the top five in DVOA against opposing TE this season, but George Kittle (+175) and Evan Engram (+275) are both overpriced.
At this stage, I’d likely go with Deebo Samuel at +160 and Christian Kirk at +225. Both are going to get plenty of touches, but Kirk is one I like more given how the 49ers have struggled against slot receivers over the last two games, having allowed four TDs in that spot.
Verdict: Christian Kirk +240 (bet365) | Deebo Samuel +162 (bet365) if you want action on the Niners
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Titans vs. Buccaneers
We’ll keep this one short and sweet.
Both teams struggle to defend WR1, rank 23rd and 28th against deep passes and have combined to allow 17 TDs to opposing WR this season. The two receivers who lead their team in average depth of target happen to be the WR1s in DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans.
Given how both teams are strong against the run, I’d rather just bank on pass-catchers.
Verdict: DeAndre Hopkins +190 (Caesars) & Mike Evans +180 (DraftKings)
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I know the last time these two teams played, it was a 28-3 beatdown. As poor as he’s looked, though, QB Deshaun Watson is a huge step up from P.J. Walker or Dorian Robinson-Thompson.
I’m going right back to RB Kareem Hunt here at +370. He continues to get the goal-line work for the Browns, leads the team in red-zone carries with 12 in only six games and has four TD in five carries inside the 5-yard line.
As for the Ravens, you can’t go wrong with TE Mark Andrews at +195. I know the Browns are No.1 in DVOA against opposing TEs, but Andrews is nearly matchup-proof and has scored twice on them in Week 3.
Verdict: Mark Andrews +185 (DraftKings) & Kareem Hunt +350 (Caesars)
The hype train for C.J. Stroud and the Texans is rightfully at full speed, but this could be a game where they see it go off the rails.
The Bengals defense is a top-10 unit in DVOA against the pass and since coming off its bye week, Cincinnati only allowed four passing TD in four games. That’s why I’m not loving the likes of Nico Collins or Tank Dell in this spot.
Instead, go with TE Dalton Schultz, who has been the go-to target in the red zone for the Texans with four TDs in his last five games.
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, in theory, should have an A+ matchup, but he’s nursing a back injury while WR2 Tee Higgins isn’t expected to play. I'm not sure what to expect from the Bengals, so throw a dart on Andrei Iosivas at +600. He has two touchdowns in the last three games, and Cincinnati is starting to run out of bodies.
Verdict: Dalton Schultz +220 (DraftKings) & Andrei Iosivas +650 (FanDuel)
I don’t expect a ton of points in this game, but the Steelers defense is a bit overrated in some spots. Sure, Pittsburgh is No. 1 in DVOA against TE1 and seventh in DVOA against the pass, but it ranks in the bottom 10 in DVOA against opposing WR2s and WR3s.
When I see that, that means this is the Romeo Doubs show for the Packers. He’s been consistently playing over 80% of snaps and has 12 red-zone targets, which leads the team and is 10th overall in the NFL.
For the Steelers offense, now that Diontae Johnson has finally gotten the monkey off his back, I’m back to being comfortable betting him for a TD. Grab him this week at +225 while you can.
Verdict: Romeo Doubs +333 (Caesars) & Diontae Johnson +225 (PointsBet)
This is the Michael Thomas game for the Saints. The Vikings rank 23rd in DVOA against the short-passing game and are 30th in DVOA against WR2. This is the week where he gets his second TD of the season.
If Justin Jefferson is back for the Vikings — which seems like a long shot — I’m going with Jordan Addison at +205. He’s been a TD machine in his first season and the Saints struggle against opposing WR2s, ranking 22nd in DVOA against WR2s compared to fourth against WR1s.
Verdict: Michael Thomas +280 (FanDuel) & Jordan Addison +260 (FanDuel)
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This is a frustrating matchup at first glance because it's made for RB Bijan Robinson. The Cardinals rank 31st in DVOA against the run with 13 TDs allowed to opposing backs in 2023. But, Robinson likely won’t see the field in goal-line opportunities because head coach Arthur Smith continues to use RB2 Tyler Allgeier instead.
Allgeier has an absurd 24 red-zone carries this season, which are the sixth most in the NFL. With my feelings about Smith and this offense, I’ve blacklisted myself from betting Falcons TD scorers except for Allgeier.
Other than WR Marquise Brown, I want nothing to do with the Cardinals until I see what QB Kyler Murray looks like. Murray is around +200 to score, but I trust his arm over his legs in his first start back. I expect him to look for Brown early and often because, quite frankly, there’s no one else worth looking for among Arizona pass-catchers.
Verdict: Marquise Brown +230 (Caesars) & Tyler Allgeier +200 (Caesars)
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This game could easily see 70 points and the ATD odds reflect that. Nearly all starters are below +200 except for Lions TE Sam LaPorta and Chargers TEs Gerald Everett and Donald Parham.
While I like LaPorta, I'm also going to take a long shot on Lions WR3 Jameson Williams at +500. His snaps continue to increase, the Chargers have allowed nine TDs to WRs this season and rank 21st in DVOA against the deep ball.
Verdict: Sam LaPorta +240 (bet365) & Jameson Williams +650 (Caesars)
Yes, I’m a Cowboys fan. No, I’m not worried about losing this game. Why? Have you watched Tommy DeVito play quarterback? This is the type of matchup where the Cowboys pass rush feasts, and the Giants haven’t shown anything in DeVito’s two appearances where they can competently move the ball.
That being said, the Giants could potentially take advantage of the Cowboys' aggressiveness and beat them over the top or get a defensive pass interference call in the end zone. That’s why, even with DeVito starting, I have to ride with Saquon Barkley at +240. I get the disrespect to DeVito, but +240 for an RB of Barkley’s status? That’s blatant mockery.
Verdict: Saquon Barkley +240 (bet365)
This could be the sneaky-fun matchup of the late-afternoon slate.
The Commanders have mostly shown this season that because of the strength of their talent, they can hang with almost any team offensively. That’s why my go-to bet for Washington is WR3 Curtis Samuel.
We bet Jahan Dotson last week against the Patriots but the Seahawks matchup a bit better with outside receivers than the slot. Seattle is 28th in DVOA against the short pass and seventh in DVOA against the deep ball. Samuel has the lowest average depth of target for all Commanders WRs and is second on the team with five red-zone targets and three red-zone carries.
This, in theory, should be the DK Metcalf game. The Commanders have routinely gotten destroyed by WR1 (see A.J. Brown) and rank 24th in DVOA against the deep ball. Metcalf is starting to get squeaky wheel syndrome after not scoring for the last few weeks and leads the team in average depth of target.
Verdict: Curtis Samuel +350 (bet365) & DK Metcalf +150 (bet365)
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NFL Week 10 ATD Best Bets
Sam LaPorta
Anytime Touchdown (+240)
LaPorta has four touchdowns this season, all of which have come at home. This isn’t a home game, but it will be indoors wil a heavy Lions presence at SoFi Stadium.
LaPorta has 28 targets and a touchdown in his last three games. He leads the team with six red-zone targets, which is the same as WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown. In the Lions’ last game, he had three red-zone targets and that touchdown.
The Chargers defense has also struggled against tight ends over the last three games:
Tyler Conklin: 6/66/0
Cole Kmet: 10/79/0
Travis Kelce: 12/179/1
Curtis Samuel
Anytime Touchdown (+375)
We got Jahan Dotson last week, and we’ll be on his teammate this week.
Samuel has seven red-zone targets, which is one behind Dotson’s team-high eight. Samuel also missed a game and has three red-zone carries. In total, he has two receiving touchdowns and one rushing.
The Seahawks defense has holes that Samuel can exploit. Seattle ranks 28th in DVOA against short passes and seventh against long passes. Samuel has the lowest average depth of target of all Commanders receivers and should thrive in this matchup.
Brandon Aiyuk
2 TDs (+1300)
Dalton Schultz
2 TDs (+1800)
Aiyuk has a two-TD game in Week 1 but hasn’t scored since. The Jaguars have allowed nine touchdowns to WRs this season, eight of which were scored by perimeter receivers.
Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel will get a lot of attention, but this matches up better for Aiyuk, whose ATD odds are the same as Samuel.
Schultz has four touchdowns in his last five games and at least 10 targets in two of his last three.
The Bengals are 30th in DVOA against opposing tight ends and rank in the bottom five in catches and receiving yards allowed to the position. Importantly, Cincinnati has allowed four touchdowns to TEs.
Schultz might get force-fed 15 targets if the game script goes our way since the Texans are missing some key offensive pieces, so let’s go big.
