Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for NFL Week 8.
Week 8 Anytime Touchdown Previews
Any game involving QB P.J. Walker is a game I want to avoid for touchdowns. All the Browns RB TD odds are steamed and Walker’s over/under line for interceptions is already up to 1.5. Sportsbooks are predicting incompetency, which means it would fall in the miracle category if he were to complete a passing touchdown. No thanks.
The Seahawks get the treat of welcoming, statistically, the best defense in the NFL. There will be no easy scores for Seattle and with a total of 38, it’s likely going to come down to a broken tackle or missed assignment. By default, just go with WR DK Metcalf and hope he can make it through the whole game without getting injured.
Verdict: Bet DK Metcalf ATD (+210, bet365)
This feisty Cardinals team may not be covering spreads like they were earlier in the season, but they've been in nearly every game so far. Now, there’s potential for Arizona to get QB Kyler Murray back, who is infinitely a better passer than Dobbs. With or without Murray, we’re immediately going to Marquise Brown at +260 in a revenge spot. He’s gotten 10+ targets in five of seven games and scored all three of his touchdowns last season with Murray a QB.
On the other side, it's not a bad idea either to go after a long shot on Ravens WRs with both Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman at +400 to score. I’d likely opt for OBJ.
Verdict: Bet Marquise Brown ATD (+260, bet365) and Odell Beckham Jr. ATD (+400, bet365)
This game should have more hype, but we still don’t know what we’re getting with Bengals QB Joe Burrow or the 49ers' starting QB situation.
Last week, Vikings WR Jordan Addison made mincemeat of the Niners secondary, which may have exposed a weakness in this strong defense. If we're looking for a similar player who plays mostly out of the slot with a high average depth of target, the only player to fit this description on the Bengals is WR Tee Higgins. You could also be super-sneaky and take Burrow for a TD at +650 to see if that calf is truly healed.
Although he has scored in every game this season, I can’t endorse a Christian McCaffrey TD bet at -165. Sure, he may score, but if you haven’t been betting on him every week already then this might not be the week to start
Verdict: Bet Tee Higgins ATD (+220, bet365); sprinkle on Burrow ATD (+900, PointsBet) if you’re sick in the head like me
I’m already down on the Broncos in general and now, they have a matchup with the Chiefs’ strong secondary. Oh yeah, there’s also potential for snow in the forecast.
If that’s the case, just give me Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon at +350. He scored four TDs against Denver last season, and the Broncos have allowed the most catches to opposing RBs in the NFL this season. With Isiah Pacheco at -105, I'd rather go down the odds board to find some value.
Verdict: Bet Jerick McKinnon ATD (+350, FanDuel) and punt the Broncos into the sun
NFL Week 8 ATD Best Bets
DeVonta Smith
Anytime Touchdown (+250)
Smith has two touchdowns this season and is playing more than 95% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps. He’s a key part of the offense who rarely leaves the field.
This season, though, Smith has been overshadowed by A.J. Brown, who’s breaking out as a legit star receiver. The Commanders’ top offensive priority will be to contain Brown, especially since he scored twice against them back in Week 4.
That’s why we like Smith here, along with the matchup.
Washington has been awful against wide receivers this season. It has allowed an NFL-leading nine touchdowns to opposing WRs and 14 passing touchdowns overall.
Back in Week 4, Smith had seven catches on eight targets for 98 yards against Washington. He also scored in both games against the Commanders last season.
This is a nice spot for positive regression with a great matchup.
Marquise Brown
Anytime Touchdown (+260)
Brown is the clear No. 1 option in the passing game for the Cardinals, having gotten double-digit targets in four of six games this season. He leads in the Cardinals with seven red-zone targets and is also second in average depth of target, meaning he’s a weapon all over the field.
It doesn’t really matter whether it’s Joshua Dobbs or Kyler Murray under center for Arizona. Browns scored three touchdowns and averaged 10.5 targets in seven games Murray played last season, and he’s been efficient this year with Dobbs.
In a “Revenge Game” spot, we’re betting Hollywood.
George Kittle
2+ TDs (+1600)
Tommy Tremble
Anytime Touchdown (+1100)
Both of these are 0.25-unit plays for me.
The 49ers offense is in the toilet right now, which is why we’re getting this price. Last week against the Vikings, Kittle was 8-1 to score twice.
There are 25 players who have had two or more touchdowns in a game this season, and Kittle is one of four tight ends to do it. Last season, he did it three times with Brock Purdy.
The Bengals are also a good matchup for Kittle. Cincinnati has given up a touchdown to a tight end in four of six games this season.
As for Tremble, I’m going to keep betting this every week if we keep getting odds like this.
The Texans are last in the NFL in catches allowed to tight ends and have given up the fourth-most yards.
Tremble played a season-high number of snaps in Week 6 before Carolina’s bye week. Ian Thomas is still on injured reserve, and Hayden Hurst hasn’t done much since Week 1.
I said this last week and it blew up in my face, but Cooper Kupp's ATD shouldn’t be plus-odds. Yes, he only got two catches against the Steelers, but that appeared to be more of the game plan since counterpart Puka Nakua was the focal point and finished with 12 targets and 154 receiving yards.
Facing this Cowboys defense should provide Kupp a bit of cushion with him moving all over the field. Don’t overthink it. Next game.
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In what’s supposed to be a wet and dreary game, I’m immediately looking at the run game for both teams. That’s why I like A.J. Dillon and Cam Akers in this spot.
Dillon scored last week and still has been the primary goal-line back for the Packers with or without Aaron Jones. I certainly don’t want to trust QB Jordan Love to make a throw since his INT odds are as high as -180 this week (the second-highest for any QB in Week 8).
I'm looking at Akers primarily because I don’t like Alexander Mattison, whose longest run of the season is 19 yards and is yet to really seize the mantle that Dalvin Cook left for him. Akers got 10 carries against the Niners and had a few catches to boot. Facing a Packers team that has been fairly solid against the pass, I’d rather try to get a TD from a Vikings running back now that they’re not facing a top run defense like Niners, Chiefs and Eagles.
Verdict: Bet A.J. Dillon ATD (+190, PointsBet) and Cam Akers ATD (+270, FanDuel)
I’m still pretty bitter about how RB Bijan Robinson didn’t play much last week or QB Desmond Ridder’s overall incompetence.
That being said, if you gotta take a Falcons in this spot, just go with Drake London. He’s second in the NFL in red-zone targets, plays the most snaps of any Falcons WR and Titans have struggled to contain the pass (six TD allowed) compared to only three for rushing.
I need to see more from Will Levis before I can endorse a Titans TD, especially since QB2 Malik Willis is expected to rotate with him depending on the game.
Verdict: Bet Drake London ATD +250 (bet365)
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When these teams met in Week 2, it was kind of boring. The Patriots took away all of the Dolphins' receiving options and RB Raheem Mostert controlled the game. While I think Mostert will still be heavily involved, I have to go back to WR Jaylen Waddle in this spot. He had five catches for 86 yards before getting hurt in that Week 2 matchup. In the rematch at home, he's the Dolphins player to bet.
As for the Patriots, look no further than TE Hunter Henry. He hasn’t been really featured much in this struggling offense, but it likely won’t matter because the Dolphins rank in the bottom seven in catches, yards and TDs to TE this season. If Henry isn’t good enough for you, there’s always the “Revenge Game” angle with Mike Gesicki, who is coming off scoring his first TD with the Pats last week.
Verdict: Bet Jaylen Waddle ATD (+145, FanDuel) and Hunter Henry ATD (+360, FanDuel); sprinkle Mike Gesicki ATD (+500, FanDuel)
For all the goodwill the Texans have drummed up, they still struggle to contain TEs. Sure, they’ve only allowed one TD to the position, but they're last in the NFL in catches and targets allowed to the position. That means you can either go with Hayden Hurst at +400 or dabble on the long shot like Tommy Tremble at +1600. You also can’t go wrong betting Adam Thielen at +200 if TE is too much of a leap.
If I’m betting a Houston ATD scorer, I’m likely going with TE Dalton Schultz. He leads the team in red-zone targets and has scored in the last three games. An alternative is RB Devin Singletary at +400. The Panthers are last in rushing TDs allowed and he has nine red-zone carries in 2023.
Verdict: Bet some long shots like Hayden Hurst (+500, FanDuel) or Devin Singletary (+260, FanDuel)
Firstly, the Battle of New York shouldn’t be in New Jersey. Secondly, these two teams are tough to watch.
I might be able to convince myself into a Breece Hall ATD pick at +130 since the Giants have already allowed eight rushing TDs this season (third-most in NFL) or TE Darren Waller to get in the end zone again after getting his first TD of season in Week (Jets rank last in TD to TE this season with five). But, why would you want to?
Verdict: Bet Breece Hall ATD (+130, BetMGM) and Darren Waller ATD (+330, DraftKings) but don’t invest much time watching the game
Maybe the Steelers finally got the memo in Week 7, but RB2 Jaylen Warren is a stud. He’s second on the team in targets and the Jaguars have given up the most receptions to RB this season. I’ll take a swing that he continues his rise in this offense. As great as Diontae Johnson looked in Week 7, don’t take his ATD odds. Even if it hits, you don’t want your first Johnson TD at +275 odds since he hasn’t scored since the 2021 season.
I almost thought Calvin Ridley was injured last week with the lack of volume from the Jags’ passing attack. With the way the Steelers have struggled to contain WR this season, this looks like a great bounce-back spot for Ridley at +195.
Verdict: Bet Jaylen Warren ATD (+260, Caesars) and Calvin Ridley (+195, DraftKings)
While I’m sure there are decent running options available on both the Saints and Colts, their run-success rate for the season isn’t likely going to increase after this game. Both teams have stout defensive lines with strong run defenses, which means RB Alvin Kamara (+120) and RB Jonathan Taylor (+100) are players to avoid based on their low value.
Instead, look at longer odds on players likely to stretch the field like WRs Rashid Shaheed or WR Alec Pierce.
Pierce is playing close to 95% of snaps and with Gardner Minshew at QB, he’s seen at least five targets in each game he started. Pierce also dropped a pass in the end zone against the Browns last week, so here’s a chance to rebound.
Shaheed, on the other hand, is the true game-breaker for the Saints with the highest average depth of target on the team. The one thing Derek Carr can do is throw a good deep ball. This is Shaheed’s bread and butter, and he can potentially take one to the house on a punt return too.
Verdict: Bet Rashid Shaheed ATD (+333, BetMGM) and Alec Pierce ATD (+430, FanDuel)
Eagles vs. Commanders
The last game between these teams was a shootout. Being in the same division, the Commanders have the personnel to play tough on the Eagles. The guy I want to go back to is WR Curtis Samuel. He scored in Week 4 against the Eagles on a jet sweep and is the type of gadget player that can be used out of the backfield or catching tough passes. Over the last four games, he scored in three of them and saw 29 targets.
The Eagles' run game is obviously their strength and while it would be easy to want to back WR A.J. Brown at +120 again, this is a spot where you want TE Dallas Goedert. He’s scored in two of the last three weeks and the Commanders have given up four TDs to opposing tight ends this season.
