» Go to our expert's favorite props for Sunday Night Football
Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals the most valuable NFL player props based on his projections for Week 11. He has a 461-354-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him for more picks.
Note that these lines move fast, so some are likely to have shifted before you're reading this story.
NFL Player Props To Bet
Lions–Browns Props
Donovan Peoples-Jones Under 41.5 Rec Yards (-125)
DPJ is questionable with a groin injury that he's been dealing with for a few weeks now. Even if he's able to suit up, there's a chance he could be limited. The Browns likely won't need to throw much to put away the Lions here.
I'm projecting him closer to 30.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 36.5
49ers–Jaguars Props
George Kittle Under 63.5 Rec Yards (-115)
There isn't much to say here other than Kittle is an elite tight end, but ultimately, I'm projecting him for closer to 54.5 yards this Sunday.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 59.5
Dolphins–Jets Props
Michael Carter Under 27.5 Rec Yards (-113)
Carter has been less productive against man coverage (as are most RBs) with 0.83 yards per route run rate (YPRR) against man compared to 2.35 YPRR against zone, and the Dolphins play man at the fifth-highest rate.
I'm projecting this closer to 22.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 25.5
Washington Football Team–Panthers Props
Antonio Gibson Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
The Week 10 bye likely allowed Gibson to get his shin closer to 100% health. It also helps that Washington got two key offensive linemen back in Brandon Scherff and Samuel Cosmi.
The Football Team was able to lean on their running game to keep the Bucs offense off the field in the win before the bye. I expect them to stick to that approach here, so I'm projecting Gibson for closer to 15.5 attempts.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 14.5
Ravens–Bears Props
Sammy Watkins Over 30.5 Rec Yards (-110)
With Marquise Brown expected to miss, Watkins should see a significant increase in playing time and targets. He was eased into action last week but isn't on the injury report heading into Week 11.
Devin Duvernay could eat into Watkins' role, but Duvernay is dealing with a knee injury and is questionable. Watkins' prop will shoot up even more if Duvernay is ruled out as well. I'm projecting this closer to 39.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 33.5
Saints–Eagles Props
Jordan Howard Under 33.5 Rush Yards (-113)
With Miles Sanders expected to return, Howard has a very low floor this week. He may see only a handful of carries against a stingy Saints run defense. I'm projecting this closer to 22.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 27.5
Bengals–Raiders Props
Darren Waller Under 71.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Waller has a high floor, but he's cleared this number only two times in eight games this season and I'm projecting him for 63.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 67.5
Cowboys–Chiefs Props
Mecole Hardman Over 23.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Hardman gets an upgrade against man coverage, which the Cowboys run at the eighth-highest rate. This is a spot in which Dallas sells out to try and slow down Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, making a receiver like Hardman beat them. I'm projecting this closer to 30.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 25.5
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
