Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his top seven NFL player props to bet this Sunday, featuring James Robinson and Kareem Hunt overs. Sean Koerner has a 490-381-9 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
Note that these lines move fast, so it's likely some are stale by the time you're reading this story, which is why we've included Koerner's "bet to" threshold for each.
NFL Player Props To Bet
Kenny Golladay Under 40.5 Rec Yards (-112)
Golladay is on track to play through a rib injury, but there's a chance he'll be limited. Mike Glennon will start his second straight game for the injured Daniel Jones, and the backup's playing style does not correlate with Golladay's skill set at all.
Last week, Glennon graded out with a 6.8% in NFL NextGenStats' Aggressiveness % metric, which measure how often a quarterback throws into tight windows. That mark would rank dead last among qualified QBs this season.
Golladay has averaged only 2.0 yards of separation this season (fourth-lowest), and it seems unlikely Glennon will be forcing the ball into tight windows for Golladay. I'm projecting this closer to 35.5 yards, but Golladay has a very low floor.
- Bet to: 37.5
- Best book:FanDuel
Jalen Guyton Under 44.5 Rec Yards (-120)
It appears Mike Williams will be able to return from the COVID list in time to suit up while Keenan Allen has been ruled out. This opens up a ton of playing time and targets for the ancillary receivers. However, Guyton's usage can only go up so much as he's already a full-time player.
I expect Josh Palmer to see the most considerable boost in production with Allen out, and the market seems to be overlooking that with this prop. I'm projecting Guyton closer to 37.5 yards.
- Bet to: 41.5
- Best book:DraftKings
Editor's note: The following props were for games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
DeSean Jackson Over 19.5 Rec Yards (-113)
DJax is a boom-or-bust player whose outcomes range from clearing this total on a single catch to finishing with zero yards. I'm going to bet on the "boom" end of his range here though as he's seen consistent playing time in Las Vegas and we can pencil him in for about a 45% routes run rate in what should be a pass-heavy game script for the Raiders as 10-point underdogs (check real-time NFL odds here).
I'm projecting this closer to 29.5 yards.
- Bet to: 23.5
- Best book:FanDuel
James Robinson Over 49.5 Rush Yards (-110)
There was all sorts of confusion over Robinson's playing time last week, and head coach Urban Meyer admitted he had no idea what was going on, either. However, Trevor Lawrence made clear that he wants Robinson on the field as "one of [their] best players" So this week, Robinson should see plenty of touches as the coaching staff tries to appease their franchise QB.
I'm projecting Robinson closer to 58.5 yards.
- Bet to: 52.5
- Best book:BetMGM
Kareem Hunt Over 32.5 Rush Yards (-113)
Hunt was able to rush only seven times for 20 yards in Week 12 after a five-game absence. He should be closer to 100% after the Browns' Week 13 bye and return to his normal 1B role behind Nick Chubb.
Hunt cleared this number in every game before getting injured in Week 6 and I'm projecting this closer to 40.5 yards.
- Bet to: 35.5
- Best book:FanDuel
Chuba Hubbard Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
The Panthers fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady this week, and head coach Matt Rhule has stated he wants to be a run-heavy offense.
Hubbard's volume should be there against the Falcons, but with shaky offensive line play, I'm less confident in backing his yardage prop. Therefore, I'm targeting his attempts prop since it's a bit safer. I'm projecting him closer to 16.5 attempts.
- Bet to: 14.5 (-150)
- Best book:BetMGM
Ricky Seals-Jones Under 30.5 Rec Yards (-113)
RSJ should take over as Washington's starting TE with Logan Thomas on IR. However, rookie John Bates has stepped up the past couple of games and should cut into RSJ's usage enough to offer value on the under here.
I'm projecting this closer to 24.5 yards.
- Bet to: 28.5
- Best book:FanDuel
Antonio Gibson Over 66.5 Rush Yards (-113)
The Football Team has the third-highest run rate in the NFL since their Week 10 bye. I expect them to continue with that approach as they attempt to keep the Cowboys' offense on the sideline.
Gibson has cleared this number in three of four games since their bye and I'm projecting this closer to 76.5 yards.
- Bet to: 69.5
- Best book:FanDuel
Davis Mills Under 5.5 Rush Yards (-125)
Mills has yet to clear this number in six starts this season. However, he managed to clear this number last week in relief on an 11-yard scramble. The Seahawks play a ton of zone coverage, making it less likely for him to have a similar run this week.
These low-yard rushing props can be fickle, but this one seems too good to pass up — I would rather go down in flames with this prop than pass it up only to see him easily hit the under in his seventh straight game.
- Bet to: 5.5 (-140)
- Best book:DraftKings
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
