Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite NFL prop bets throughout the season. He has a 438-333-6 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
We've included the book with the best line as of writing, but it's possible they have moved by the time you read this story.
NFL Player Props
Dolphins–Bills Props
Stefon Diggs Under 87.5 Rec Yards (-113)
This prop seems a bit inflated considering Diggs will likely line up across from either Byron Jones or Xavien Howard all game, making this a tougher matchup. The Bills are also 14-point favorites and probably won't need to keep their foot on the gas for all four quarters.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 84.5
Eagles–Lions Props
Boston Scott Under 31.5 Rush Yards (-115)
The Eagles will likely use a three-way running back committee of Scott, Kenneth Gainwell and Jordan Howard. Scott has a wide range of outcomes if they use the "hot hand" approach, but that uncertainty favors his under here.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 28.5
Jamaal Williams Over 34.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Editor's Note: The Lions listed Jamaal Williams as inactive early Sunday morning.
The Lions run the ball at the highest rate on early downs in a neutral game state. They're only 3.5-point underdogs against the Eagles (check real-time NFL odds here), which means we can expect a fairly neutral game script, and this prop is too low as a result.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 37.5
Rams–Texans Props
Van Jefferson Over 40.5 Rec Yards (-115)
DeSean Jackson will not play on Sunday as the Rams are expected to trade him ahead of next week's trade deadline. As a result, we can expect Jefferson's role to expand — I'm projecting his yardage closer to 48.5.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: 43.5
Steelers–Browns Props
Nick Chubb Over 85.5 Rush Yards (-113)
Chubb should see a sizable workload with Kareem Hunt currently on IR. Chubb should also benefit from the Browns offensive line finally being healthy again.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 88.5
Jaguars–Seahawks Props
Gerald Everett Under 24.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Everett has caught all 13 of his targets this season, and his unsustainable 100% catch rate may be what's inflating his receiving yardage prop this week. He has a very low average depth of target (aDOT) of 2.8, so he could haul in three passes and still go under this number, like we saw last week when he finished with three catches for only 11 yards.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: 21.5
Washington Football Team–Broncos Props
Javonte Williams Under 50.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Javonte is coming off a season-low in rush attempts of only four. He's still stuck in a 50/50 timeshare with Melvin Gordon, and I don't expect that to change this week.
The Broncos will likely attack the Football Team's weak secondary — Washington is 29th in Football Outsiders' DVOA vs. the pass compared to eighth vs. the run — especially considering Denver welcomes back Jerry Jeudy.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 47.5
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
