Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite NFL player props throughout the season. He has a 444-339-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
We’ve included the book with the best line as of writing, but it’s possible they have moved by the time you read this story.
NFL Player Prop Bet Picks
Browns–Bengals Props
Tee Higgins Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)
Higgins has only caught 59% of his targets this season. He's due for some positive regression there as I'm projecting him to have a catch rate closer to 64% going forward.
The Browns play zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate, according to SIS, and Joe Burrow has leaned on Higgins when facing zone. I like Higgins to get five-plus catches here and would bet it up to -140.
- Best book as of writing: BetMGM
- Bet to: -140
Raiders–Giants Props
Daniel Jones Over 22.5 Rush Yards (-113)
I like buying the dip on Jones' rushing prop here. Jones was knocked out of the Giants Week 5 contest due to a concussion. It's the main reason he only rushed for 13 total yards in Weeks 5 and 6 combined. However, he's back to 100% health, and we can expect him to scramble at his usual rate this week. I would project this closer to 26.5 and bet it up to 24.5.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 24.5
Zay Jones Under 2.5 Receptions (+110)
Tthe Raiders WR depth chart is incredibly thin after they released Henry Ruggs III, who was arrested and charged with several felonies — including DUI resulting in death and reckless driving resulting in death or seriously bodily harm — for his involvement in a fatal car crash Tuesday that killed a 23-year-old woman. As a result, Jones should see significant playing time this week.
However, I expect Derek Carr to lean on Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller even more going forward. The Raiders could also run more two-TE sets with Foster Moreau looking impressive in his spot start for Waller in Week 7. Either way, Jones is a low-volume, high aDot wideout, which means I'm comfortable attacking the under here.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: -120
Bills–Jaguars Props
Tommy Sweeney Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
With Dawson Knox out of the lineup, the Bills opted to use Sweeney in his role last week — running a route on 72% of Josh Allen's drop backs. There is a chance the Bills dial back his usage this week in favor of more playing time for Gabriel Davis (in four-wide sets), giving Sweeney a lower floor. Sweeney has an aDot of 5.6 on the season and isn't very athletic, so he could haul in three catches here and still go under. I like this down to 23.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: 23
Broncos–Cowboys Props
Melvin Gordon Under 10.5 Rush Attempts (-135)
The Broncos have averaged 29 rush attempts in their four wins compared to 18 rush attempts a game in their four losses. Considering the Broncos are 9.5-point underdogs against the Cowboys, it's unlikely Gordon will see 11+ carries. In fact, he hasn't seen 11+ carries since Week 3. I would bet this down to -150.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: -150
Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (-170)
Schultz entered 2021 in a position battle with Blake Jarwin. However, he has run away with the starting job and has become one of Dak Prescott's top targets. With Jarwin now on the IR, Schultz could see even more playing time and offers a very high floor in this market. The Broncos LB depth chart has been decimated by injury, and Schultz should get four-plus receptions with ease. I would bet this up to -200.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: -200
Packers–Chiefs Props
Travis Kelce Under 77.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
It's never fun betting on Kelce's under, but I think this line is too good to pass up. Patrick Mahomes completed 15 passes behind the line of scrimmage last week, which was the most by a QB since 2016. The Chiefs offense has become a bit more conservative as they attempt to get back on track. Their matchup got a lot easier after Aaron Rodgers was ruled out due to COVID, so they may get an early lead and lean on the run here. Green Bay's De'Vondre Campbell has been terrific this season and has become one of the best coverage linebackers in the game. He may be able to slow down Kelce a bit here. Not to mention Kelce has only cleared this number once in the past five games.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: 73.5
Texans–Dolphins Props
Phillip Lindsay Over 15.5 Rush Yards (-120)
This prop is not for the faint of heart. Lindsay has been brutal this year, and it feels crazy to invest in him right now. However, I think he has the sneaky upside to clear this low bar. Week 9 was the first game post-Mark Ingram, and it was a messy four-way RBBC. Lindsay has been the preferred back when the game script has been neutral this season. He leads the team in carries when trailing by three or less. Considering this week's matchup against the Dolphins should be a close game, I'm projecting Lindsay closer to 23-25 yards. I would bet this up to 18.5.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: 18.5
Danny Amendola Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Amendola's usage goes up against man coverage, and the Dolphins play man at the fourth-highest rate in the league. He has the easiest matchup in the slot as he will avoid Byron Jones/Xavien Howard's coverage. Tyrod Taylor's return should also benefit Amendola as the two connected for 5/34/1 in their only full game together back in Week 1.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: 18.5
