We have a full selection games this week, leaving us plenty of prop bets from which to pick and choose.
Scanning the main slate, I see value all over the board, but here are five of the best prop bets we're zeroing in on for Week 14.
Be sure to check out even more best bets for the week over at Bet the Prop. And as always, we'll be firing out more prop picks on Twitter leading up to kickoff.
Here are our records on the year:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 209-94 (67%)
- Article picks: 39-18 (68%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 264-190 (58%)
Colts WR TY Hilton
Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
If Hilton can put up 77 yards against Jaguars' shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey in a game where the Colts were shutout, then there's no reason why he can't top 65.5 yards against 34-year-old Jonathan Joseph in a game with a 50-point projected total.
There are several encouraging trends working in Hilton's favor in this key playoff matchup between the Colts and Texans:
- He has torched them of late, averaging 149.8 yards over their past five meetings.
- The last time Hilton had less than 78 yards against the Texans was 2014.
- His indoor/outdoor splits are significant, as he puts up 82.5 yards per game under a dome compared to 60.4 in the elements.
The Texans play tough run defense, and this is an absolute must-win for the Colts. I expect Hilton to be heavily featured.
With Sean Koerner projecting 78.6 yards for Hilton, this number is simply too low. If the line moves, any number up to 74.5 is fine, and at the current line, I'd pay the vig up to -130.
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Watch for this line to head south in the hours ahead, as it looks as if the books haven't learned the lesson from last week — Ekeler is not a lead back.
Once the money starts to pour in, I suspect this number will quickly drop.
Ekeler's line last Sunday against the Steelers was set at 60.5 rushing yards, and he ended up well short with 21 yards (1.6 YPC) on a career-high 13 carries.
Yes, the Steelers play fierce run defense, but that didn't phase teammate Justin Jackson, who rushed for 63 yards on eight carries (7.9 YPC). Jackson has earned a bigger rushing role, and I expect he'll get it at Ekeler's expense.
Even if Ekeler matches his career best in carries (13), he'd need to hit 4.5 YPC to top this total. It's certainly possible against a Bengals defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry, but a lot of things need to go right.
With a projection of 40.5 yards on 8.8 carries, this is one of the best bets in the prop tool this week. I'd play the line down to 50.5, and at this number, would pay the juice up to -130.
Lions RB LeGarrette Blount
Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Blount has been surprisingly good in two tough matchups since taking over for an injured Kerryon Johnson.
- Week 12: 88 yards on 19 carries (4.6 YPC) vs. the Bears (3.6 YPC allowed for the season)
- Week 13: 61 yards on 16 carries (3.8 YPC) vs. the Rams (4.8 YPC allowed for the season)
Blount gets his choicest matchup yet against a Cardinals team yielding the most attempts and the third-most rushing yards to opposing running backs.
Arizona notably limited Aaron Jones to 11 carries and 36 yards last week, but before that they surrendered at least 60 yards to an opposing back in 10 straight games.
This number would have to surge over 51.5 yards before I would reconsider. At this 45.5 line, I'd happily pay -122.
Broncos RB Philip Lindsay
Under 2.5 Receptions (-155)
Given his incredible form and the loss of Emmanuel Sanders, I strongly considered taking the over on Lindsay's rushing line of 78.5 yards, but the 49ers haven't allowed a running back to eclipse 70 yards since Week 4.
Instead we pivot to a more exploitable trend — Lindsay's total ghosting from the Denver passing game.
- The undrafted rookie has one target in his past two games combined.
- Since Week 7, he's averaged 2.2 targets and 1.7 receptions, down from 3.1 targets and 2.3 receptions over the first six weeks.
We're already paying a pretty price on this prop at -155, and I wouldn't be willing to pay more.
Eagles TE Zach Ertz
Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While it's not exactly a glaring weakness, the best chance at beating the Cowboys defense may be via the tight end.
That was the game plan in Week 10, when Ertz was force fed a career-high 16 targets against the Cowboys, erupting for 145 yards.
While giving up up the sixth-fewest yards to WRs and fifth-fewest rushing yards to running backs, Dallas ranks just 18th in yards against Zack Ertz's position.
Strong play from the Cowboys secondary — and defensive line, which held Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram 63 yards on 18 carries last week — should result in plenty of targets being funneled Ertz's way.
Betting the over on Ertz's yardage totals would have netted you an 8-4 record this season.
I'd be willing to play this to 74.5 yards, and at this price would pay up to -122.
