Steelers-Chargers checks in as the fifth-highest total game of the week, and the prop bets for this Sunday Night Football matchup have been set correspondingly high.
While it's always preferable to take a few easy overs and celebrate a cash in the third quarter, sometimes it's just not there, sentencing us to a night of a full 60-minute sweat.
That's especially the case with the first prop bet on the card.
First though, a look at our robust betting records on the year. Be sure to check out even more prop betting content at Bet the Prop.
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 199-91 (67%)
- Article picks: 38-17 (69%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 243-178 (58%)
Steelers WR Antonio Brown
Under 89.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Buckle up.
Fading Antonio Brown is about as fun as waiting for the executioner to show up, but especially at these near-even-money odds, I'm willing to take the ride.
This is a bet on Chargers CB Casey Hayward, who is likely to shadow Brown everywhere he goes tonight. As Ian Hartitz pointed out in his matchups column, Hayward has been a shutdown maestro in 2018, holding WRs across from him to an average of 28 yards on 2.5 receptions.
Only Courtland Sutton (78 yards) has eclipsed even 50 yards against Hayward.
As a unit, the Chargers allow the eighth-fewest receptions and yards to opposing WRs.
Sean Koerner projects Brown at 85 yards, so we're already playing with fire on such an explosive player. I've seen this number at 84.5 elsewhere, and I wouldn't be willing to play the line that low.
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
With Melvin Gordon nursing a sprained MCL, Ekeler takes over as the Chargers' starter for the foreseeable future. It's the same role that resulted in 42 yards on 12 carries after Gordon was a late scratch against the Titans in Week 7.
Those 12 totes were a career-high for Ekeler, and it's hard to see that number suddenly spiking against a defense allowing 3.98 yards per carry, 10th-best in the league, especially with his Chargers playing the part of road underdogs.
Even if Ekeler is fed the ball 14 or 15 times for the first time ever, he'd need to average north of 4.0 yards per carry to hit this generous number.
I'd play this down to 57.5 and at the current line would be willing to pay up to -122 vig.
Chargers WR Keenan Allen
Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)
Gordon's absence likely means a few more pass attempts for Philip Rivers. And with Mike Williams drawing coverage from CB Joe Haden, and Tyrell Williams nursing a quad injury, Allen is the best bet to benefit.
Coming off totals of nine and seven receptions over his past two games, Allen also has the best matchup of the bunch: Slot WRs Emmanuel Sanders (7 catches), Jarvis Landry (7), Tyler Boyd (7), and Willie Snead (7 & 6) have all been busy against the weakest link in the Steelers' otherwise stout defense.
Allen's volume has been on the rise in recent weeks after a slow start.
- His 48 targets over the past month is sixth-best among all WRs, while his 34 receptions rank fourth.
- A 28% target share in that time is tied for eighth-best with Adam Thielen and Tyreek Hill.
This line is unlikely to move to 6.0 or 7.0 receptions, but the price might. I'd be willing to pay up to -122, but no more.
