Merry Christmas, everyone. Now, let's bet some NFL player props.
Using Sean Koerner's expert projections on Action Labs, I've selected three player props to highlight on Christmas. There are many more edges, some greater than these, so give Labs a shot today.
Here are three NFL player props to pick on Sunday.
Christian Watson
Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Watson was a winner last week with 46 receiving yards on his 45.5 total. Did the winning catch come in the final few minutes of the Packers’ win over the Rams? Yes, but that made the win even sweeter.
This game provides more potential for a big game from Watson. Unlike the past couple weeks against the Bears and Rams, two uninspiring teams with uninspiring offenses, the Packers face the juggernaut attack from the Miami Dolphins.
Watson has seen at least six targets in each of the Packers’ last five games. Romeo Doubs came back last week, but Watson’s snap count remained high at 87%.
Watson has cleared this total just twice in his last five games, but Koerner is projecting him for 58.7 receiving yards. The matchup should see plenty of points, and it would make sense that a lot of the Packers’ offense goes through Watson.
Pick: Christian Watson Over 52.5 Receiving Yards |
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Cam Akers
Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
Koerner bet Akers’ under last week against the Packers, but he delivered two impressive runs that helped him go over. This week, with a total that’s two yards lower, we’re on the over. Koerner is projecting the Rams’ RB1 for 59 rushing yards.
Akers has gone over this total three times in his last five games, and it mostly depends on the volume he gets. He’s had at least 12 carries in four of those last five games, and the three overs came in those games.
This Broncos vs. Rams matchup is not going to be a shootout. The Rams will be looking to feed Akers plenty, since his yards-per-carry average is up to 4.2 over those last five games.
Denver has the No. 1-rated DVOA defense against the pass, but it’s not like the Rams are going to be moving the ball through the air against most defenses. The Broncos are 17th against the run, which presents Los Angeles its best way to generate offense.
Akers’ rushing attempts prop is 12.5. If he goes over that, he should go over this prop.
Mike Evans
Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
This probably doesn’t look like a very fun prop to bet, but Evans went under this number in five straight games before registering 83 receiving yards last week against the Bengals.
Evans has been a victim (or reason, perhaps) for the Buccaneers’ sputtering offense. He has only caught 64 of his 107 targets this season (59.8%), a rate that would be his lowest since Brady came to Tampa.
Arizona’s pass defense ranks 20th in DVOA, but the unit ranks first in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers.
We’ll keep fading Evans, who’s projected for 53.7 receiving yards by Koerner.
Pick: Mike Evans Under 60.5 Receiving Yards |
