Merry Christmas, you filthy animals. We have you covered with NFL player props on this holiday using our projections and an expert pick.
The mini-round robin tournament of AFC contenders continues on Christmas. The Chiefs will look to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win over the Steelers, and then the Ravens are road favorites to take down the Texans.
Below, get our prop recommendations for every team playing on Wednesday.
Chiefs vs. Steelers Player Props
Marquise Brown Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Marquise Brown opened his Chiefs tenure with five catches on eight targets, which came on 15 routes run. He was targeted on more than half of his routes run. That’s unsustainable.
Brown’s average depth of target was seven yards, which also indicates there was a focus on getting him the ball. Also, six of his 15 routes came out of the slot.
With Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins also in the lineup, that may be where Brown finds himself more than he usually has in his career.
Sean Koerner is projecting Brown for 24.3 receiving yards, and Chris Raybon has him pegged for 26.4 yards.
Mike Williams Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Matthew Trebby
Mike Williams has seen an uptick in production over the last three games with 75 receiving yards. His action, though, hasn’t increased much.
Williams set a new high for routes run last week since being traded to the Steelers, but it was only 18. Since his debut in Week 10, Williams has run between 11 and 18 routes every week.
This week, George Pickens is set to return after disappearing from the final injury report on Tuesday. While the number of routes Williams has run appears to not change much with Pickens’ status, the Steelers’ WR1 returning certainly won’t help him.
What will hurt Williams is Calvin Austin’s production and slight change in role. Austin has registered 65 receiving yards in the last two games without Pickens, and he has been in the slot for half of the 54 routes he has run. That’s below his season average of 59.3. Maybe Austin will move back into the slot primarily with Pickens back, but his production cannot be denied.
There are too many things going against Williams, most notably his lack of significant production when Pickens is healthy. Sean Koerner’s initial projections have Williams pegged for 6.1 receiving yards against the Chiefs.
Ravens vs. Texans Player Props
Lamar Jackson Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
By Matthew Trebby
The Texans rank third in DVOA against the run this season, but opposing quarterbacks are averaging six yards per carry against them. Houston can contain opposing running backs, maybe even Derrick Henry, but quarterbacks are a different story.
Lamar Jackson will face a tough matchup against Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, who might be the best edge-rushing pair in the NFL.
Jackson may be off his spot more than usual and won’t have to worry about the conditions with this game being played indoors. It’ll be easy for him to turn on the jets and scramble.
Raybon projects Jackson for 50 rushing yards, so I’d play this up to 46.5.
Nico Collins Anytime TD Scorer (+137)
As if it wasn't already clear, Nico Collins is the clear WR1 for the Texans with Tank Dell out for the season. Collins is the only remaining receiver of the trio that Houston rolled out at the start of the year with Dell and Stefon Diggs, both of whom tore their ACLs.
Collins gets a great matchup against the Ravens, who are allowing the second-most passing yards per game. They've also given up 17 touchdowns to opposing receivers this season and the fourth-most receiving yards to receivers this season.
The Ravens have a strong run defense that causes teams to focus on beating them through the air. Opponents pass on Baltimore at one of the highest rates in the NFL, which means Collins should see a lot of volume here.
I have odds of Collins scoring at 50%, which makes this a great EV bet.
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