For the first time this season, we have two Monday Night Football games. That means I'll have two NFL player props.
We're getting back to basics and what we do best for tonight's matchups, which means we're betting a pair of unders.
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Bills-Jaguars Player Prop
Dalton Kincaid Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
Dalton Kincaid is off to a bit of a slow start this season, having failed to clear this number in either of the Bills' first two games. While I think he'll eventually break out, I'm still showing value on the under based on this matchup.
The Bills have been a very-run heavy team since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in the middle of last season. Even when Josh Allen drops back to pass, he's a threat to scramble, which leads to fewer pass attempts.
The Jaguars play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. That means we should expect Allen to scramble at a higher rate tonight.
Jacksonville's preferred coverage is also bad news for Kincaid. His target rate against man coverage is 4% lower and he averages 0.6 fewer yards per route run.
Also helping this pick is that Kincaid's average depth of target is 0.3 yards lower this season than it was for his rookie campaign. That means even if Kincaid gets a handful of targets, he might not clear this number. Also, the Jaguars defense has allowed the third-fewest yards per play on pass attempts less than 10 yards down the field this season.
I'm projecting Kincaid's median closer to 30.5 yards with a 63% chance he stays under 37.5.
Bengals-Commanders Player Prop
Andrei Iosivas Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
I'm high on Andrei Iosivas as a player. I was saying last year that he's probably Cincinnati's long-term replacement for Tee Higgins.
Well, tonight, Higgins is expected to make his season debut after a hamstring injury kept him out of the Bengals' first two games. He practiced fully this week and was not listed on the injury report.
Cincinnati ran 12 personnel (two-tight end sets) on 16% of snaps last season, but that's up to 35% so far this year. The Bengals rank third in success rate and have Mike Gesicki playing well, as well as rookie tight end Erick All. I'm guessing the Bengals stick with that approach even with Higgins back.
That also means Iosivas could see his playing time take a hit, especially with Trenton Irwin still likely to rotate in and get his share of snaps.
Even if we don’t see Iosivas' playing time take a hit, he has only drawn a target on 13% of his routes and has an average depth of target of 7.9 yards downfield. He tends to get most of his targets in goal-to-go situations in the end zone, which explains his high touchdown rate, but that caps his ceiling when it comes to accumulating receiving yards.
I'm projecting Iosivas' median closer to 20.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance he stays under 25.5.
