Devin Singletary
Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
There are a few reasons why I like Singletary's under.
First, there’s his backfield mate, James Cook. In the Wild Card Round, Singletary was out-touched by Cook, who had 12 rush attempts to Singletary’s 10. I thought there was a chance the Bills would lean more on Singletary in the playoffs, but it was the opposite. Singletary dominated passing down work, while Cook played more on early downs.
This should also be a close game where the Bills will likely be a bit more pass heavy than usual.
The Bengals run defense is very good. Though they rank 14th in DVOA, consider that D.J. Reader — one of the premier run stuffers in the league — missed six games. Teams average 4.6 yards per run when he’s off the field, compared to only 3.6 yards/run when he’s on the field.
I project Singletary’s median closer to 38.5 rush yards.
Samaje Perine
Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
This is a great buy-low spot on Perine’s after he failed to record a catch last week despite running a route on 51% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks.
There are 3 main reasons why I think we should invest in Perine:
1) Perine has seen a significant increase in usage in the second half of the season. In Weeks 1-9, he averaged a 25% routes run rate. In Weeks 11-Wild Card Round (games Mixon was healthy), he’s averaged a 43% routes run rate.
2) Perine typically sees an increase in receiving work in trailing game scripts. He’s averaged 23 receiving yards per game in the four Bengals losses and has averaged 11 receiving yards in their 10 wins (when Mixon was active as well). The Bengals are in the midst of a nine-game win streak but are 5.5-point underdogs. We should expect Perine to see a boost as a result.
3) With Alex Cappa and Jonah Williams ruled out, the Bengals' offensive line could be a significant issue. It could prevent the Bengals from effectively running the ball, but will also likely result in Burrow facing more pressure than usual.
Perine’s target share goes from 6.6% when Burrow has a clean pocket to 16.3% when Burrow faces pressure. That +9.7% increase in target share when Burrow is under pressure is by far the highest of any Bengals pass-catcher.
Granted, a lot of that is due to Perine typically being on the field when Burrow’s more likely to face pressure, but that is precisely my point as this is a game where Perine could see maximum usage in the passing game.
I’m projecting Perine closer to 15.5 receiving yards and love his upside in this market.
Pick: Samaje Perine Over 10.5 Receiving Yards |
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