Justin Fields
ATD +195 (FanDuel)
This may be chalky, but I have to acknowledge that Fields is going to do what he does in this game.
Fields has nearly as many rush attempts this season as he does pass completions at 170-143. We also just saw last week, when Raheem Mostert ran for nearly 150 yards on this Bills defense.
Fields has seven touchdowns in his last seven games, and it would be eight in eight if not for stepping out of bounds en route to the end zone against the Eagles last week. Four of those touchdowns have been runs of 45 or more yards.
I don’t remember a guy with a track record like Fields getting a number like this, so we’re on it.
Pick: Justin Fields Anytime TD Scorer |
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DK Metcalf
ATD +200 (bet365)
Metcalf has scored a touchdown in four of his last seven games and has six on the season. He’s third in the NFL with 22 red-zone targets. To put that into perspective, he’s keeping Stefan Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, Travis Kelce and Justin Jefferson as company. You’re not finding those players’ touchdown odds at a number like this.
The last time Metcalf was +200 to score a touchdown, he did it. That was back in Week 5, when he posted a 5/88/1 receiving line against the Saints.
It’s expected to be cold in Kansas City, which is why we’re getting an inflated number. That may not matter because the Chiefs secondary is also ice cold. Kansas City has allowed 19 passing touchdowns to wide receivers this season and seven passing touchdowns in its last three games.
I’d also consider Marquise Goodwin at +250, but Metcalf is my guy today.
Tommy Tremble
ATD +550 (Caesars)
Were the first two picks too chalky, in terms of name value and not betting value, for you? Well, let’s fix that.
Tremble has the second-most receiving touchdowns on the Panthers this season. He’s also the clear TE1 in Carolina, having out-snapped Ian Thomas almost every single week.
Why I’m encouraged for Tremble this week is the matchup. He faces a Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends and the most touchdowns (10). C.J. Uzomah even scored twice against them last week.
Tremble has been lining up in the slot a lot, as well, and the Lions also allow the most fantasy points to that position this season. D.J. Moore could also see some action in the slot.
The weather is expected to be cold in Charlotte, but winds aren’t expected to be too much of a factor. I think we’re getting good value here in a favorable matchup.
